Predicting the first loss for every college football top 25 team

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FORT WORTH, TX – NOVEMBER 19: Mason Rudolph #2 of the Oklahoma State Cowboys celebrates with fans after beating the TCU Horned Frogs 31-6 at Amon G. Carter Stadium on November 19, 2016 in Fort Worth, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images) /

No. 11 Oklahoma State Cowboys: at Texas, Oct. 21

This year will be Oklahoma State’s best chance to upend the Sooners in the Big 12 race and reach the College Football Playoff, as the Cowboys own the most explosive passing attack in the nation.

Mike Gundy exceeded expectations yet again in 2016, guiding the Cowboys to a 10-3 mark and No. 11 finish in the AP Poll after starting the year just inside the top 25. A ref-aided Hail Mary loss to Central Michigan and blowout defeat in Bedlam soured things a bit, but Oklahoma State couldn’t be stopped for most the year and closed the season by crushing a good Colorado team in the Alamo Bowl.

Prolific quarterback Mason Rudolph has a ton of targets to throw to with arguably the nation’s best receiver in James Washington leading the way, while 1,000-yard rusher Justice Hill will be a solid complement behind an experienced offensive line. As with most Big 12 teams, the questions are on defense, as Oklahoma State has to replace its two best linemen and three members of the secondary from a middling unit.

There will be a few tests early on, but the Cowboys are talented enough to survive high-scoring games at Pitt and against TCU in September. Following a home matchup against a sneaky good Baylor defense on Oct. 14, Oklahoma State will begin a three-game stretch against Texas, West Virginia and Oklahoma that will define its season.

Game seven is right around when the talented Longhorns might start to take off, and Herman will have his team ready for the upset at home against one of the Big 12 favorites. Shane Buechele will be the biggest test yet for the Cowboys’ shaky secondary, and the Longhorns will get just enough out of their defensive playmakers to deal Oklahoma State a defeat.

That certainly won’t be the end of Oklahoma State’s Big 12 title hopes, as the Cowboys’ two toughest remaining games against Oklahoma (Nov. 4) and Kansas State (Nov. 18) both come in Stillwater.