Predicting the first loss for every college football top 25 team

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PASADENA, CA – JANUARY 02: Running back Saquon Barkley #26 of the Penn State Nittney Lions carries the ball against the USC Trojans in the 2017 Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual at Rose Bowl on January 2, 2017 in Pasadena, California. (Photo by Leon Bennett/Getty Images) /

No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions: at Northwestern, Oct. 7

The Nittany Lions should compete for a second straight Big Ten title after closing last season on a tear, but will fall victim to one of the biggest upsets of the year early in conference play.

Expectations were tempered in the third year of the James Franklin era, and Penn State got off to a 2-2 start with a tough loss to rival Pitt and blowout defeat at Michigan. A stunning upset of Ohio State in late October got things rolling, as the Nittany Lions reeled off nine straight wins and captured the Big Ten championship to earn a berth in the Rose Bowl, where it fell 52-49 to USC in an instant classic.

All-American running back Saquon Barkley, gunslinging quarterback Trace McSorley and star tight end Mike Gesicki give Penn State one of the nation’s most explosive offenses, even with a so-so line and some questions at wide receiver with Chris Godwin gone. The high-scoring Rose Bowl was likely more a product of good offense than bad defense, but Penn State could slide a bit on that side of the ball without Brandon Bell, Garrett Sickels and two key members of the secondary.

The Nittany Lions should have enough offense to get revenge on Pittsburgh on Sept. 9 and will enter the Northwestern matchup at 5-0 if they can avoid a trap in Iowa City two weeks earlier. Northwestern has sneaky hopes of a Big Ten West championship itself and Pat Fitzgerald will have his team pumped for a huge home game, particularly if the Wildcats breeze through their nonconference and look competitive at Camp Randall the week before.

Star running back Justin Jackson will put together an efficient performance against the depleted Penn State front, while Godwin Igwebuike and a strong secondary can force enough mistakes out of an offense that lives and dies by the big play. With a season-defining stretch against Michigan and Ohio State to follow, the Nittany Lions will need to quickly recover to stay in the Big Ten race.