Predicting the first loss for every college football top 25 team

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TALLAHASSEE, FL – APRIL 8: Defensive Back Derwin James #3 of the Florida State Seminoles warms-up before the annual Garnet and Gold Spring Football game at Doak Campbell Stadium on Bobby Bowden Field on April 8, 2017 in Tallahassee, Florida. (Photo by Don Juan Moore/Getty Images) /

No. 3 Florida State Seminoles: at Clemson, Nov. 11

Florida State might just be the best team in college football entering 2017, but will have to carefully navigate the nation’s most difficult schedule to reach the College Football Playoff.

After opening the season at No. 4 in the AP Poll, Florida State was humbled by Louisville in a 63-20 loss in mid-September, and dropped a head-scratcher at home to North Carolina two weeks later. The defense transformed into an elite unit over the second half while redshirt freshman quarterback Deondre Francois showed steady improvement, helping Florida State to a 7-1 finish and impressive Orange Bowl triumph over Michigan.

Francois should take a step forward as a sophomore, Jacques Patrick and freshman phenom Cam Akers will be fine in the backfield even if they’re not at Dalvin Cook’s level, and there’s a pair of athletic big-play receivers in Nyqwan Murray and Auden Tate. The concern is an offensive line that allowed too much pressure on Francois a year ago and loses All-American Roderick Johnson, but Florida State returns six players with starting experience and should have more continuity.

As strong as the offense looks on paper, the real strength of the team will be a defense that features a deep front seven that might be the best in college football plus the nation’s interception leader in Tavarus McFadden. All-world safety Derwin James, who missed most of last year with a knee injury, appears to be fully healthy and gives the Seminoles a level of flexibility that most teams can only dream of.

Look for that defense to key an upset of Alabama in Florida State’s titanic opener, as James will be able to neutralize quarterback Jalen Hurts’ athletic ability and grind the Crimson Tide passing attack to a halt. Points will be hard to come by and Francois is going to get hit, but the Seminoles will be able to generate a few big plays against an inexperienced Crimson Tide front seven.

That should vault the Seminoles to No. 1, a position they will keep if they can survive difficult home dates against Miami (Sept. 16) and Louisville (Oct. 21). Getting through that schedule unscathed is just about impossible however, and Florida State’s offensive line will finally show cracks in Death Valley against Clemson, which will have its offense up to speed in the later stages of the season.

As mentioned before, Florida State is still going to reach the College Football Playoff by virtue of its other strong wins and Clemson dropping conference games elsewhere, and eventually will capture the program’s fourth national title.