Predicting the first loss for every college football top 25 team

No. Alabama Crimson Tide: vs. Florida State, Sept. 2 

Betting against Nick Saban’s dynasty is tough, but the preseason No. 1 will fall on the first Saturday of the season to a dynamic Florida State team.

The Crimson Tide held the No. 1 spot in the AP Poll for the duration of the regular season with a perfect mark of 12-0 and seemed likely to win its fifth championship in nine years under Saban after holding Washington at bay in the Peach Bowl. However, Clemson was able to get revenge in the title game on a dramatic last-second 35-31 victory in an uncharacteristically poor showing from the Crimson Tide defense.

Sophomore quarterback Jalen Hurts, the running back duo of Bo Scarbrough and Damien Harris, plus wide receiver Calvin Ridley gives Alabama a good offensive base. The Crimson Tide do feature a young line without all-everything left tackle Cam Robinson, while Hurts needs to prove he can pass the ball against better competition after struggling in the playoff, and will have to do so without three of his top four targets.

Saban’s defense is never going to fall off much no matter how much talent it loses, although a whopping five starters from the 2016 front seven are now in the NFL. The good news is Alabama’s secondary should be better with three starters back, including one of the nation’s best playmakers in safety Minkah Fitzpatrick.

We can expect the Crimson Tide to constantly be one of the best teams in the trenches on both sides of the ball, but will an inexperienced team figure it out in time for the opener against the Seminoles? Florida State’s pass rush and James’ athletic ability will ultimately stymie Hurts, and the Alabama defense won’t quite be able to get to Francois enough to pull off a win.

Of course, Alabama is more than good enough to run the table after that and still make the College Football Playoff, even with no margin for error. The Crimson Tide get Tennessee (Oct. 21) and LSU (Nov. 4) at home, leaving a season-ending trip to Auburn as the biggest remaining challenge.