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Top 20 college football head coaches heading into 2017

By Nicholas Ian Allen

COLUMBUS, OH - NOVEMBER 26: (R-L) Head coach Urban Meyer of the Ohio State Buckeyes and Head coach Jim Harbaugh of the Michigan Wolverines (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
COLUMBUS, OH - NOVEMBER 26: (R-L) Head coach Urban Meyer of the Ohio State Buckeyes and Head coach Jim Harbaugh of the Michigan Wolverines (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /
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ANNAPOLIS, MD – DECEMBER 03: Head coach Ken Niumatalolo of the Navy Midshipmen (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
ANNAPOLIS, MD – DECEMBER 03: Head coach Ken Niumatalolo of the Navy Midshipmen (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

11. Ken Niumatalolo, Navy Midshipmen

  • Career Record: 77-42 (.647), nine seasons
  • Record at Navy: 77-42 (.647), nine seasons
  • Championships and Awards: 2015, 2016 American Athletic Conference Coach of the Year

Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo is the only current Group of Five head coach on our list, which might be a bit surprising given the fact Niumatalolo has had only two double-digit winning seasons in nine seasons at the helm, and has just one Top 25 finish to his credit.

Nevertheless, any college football fan paying even the least amount of attention knows Niumatalolo has excelled beyond expectations. He or she just may not know how much.

In the summer of 2016, Bill Connelly of SB Nation and Football Study Hall researched how much head coaches overachieved and underachieved based on his “win expectancy” metric. In the eight years of data available to him on Niumatalolo to that point, Connelly found that Niumatalolo overachieved more than any other coach in the nation. In fact, the Midshipmen overachieved their win expectancy by 1.08 wins per season, making Niumatalolo the only FBS head coach since the data began in 2005 to average a full win better than projected.

He was even better in 2016. Navy finished 9-5 overall and won its first outright AAC West title in its second season (the Middies won a share of the 2015 division title). To do it, Navy won three games in which the Midshipmen had a less than 40 percent chance, according to Connelly’s numbers. Navy had a 36 percent win expectancy against Houston and won 46-40, were given a 33 percent chance against Notre Dame and won 28-27, and best Tulsa 42-40 with just a 22 percent win expectancy.

Given the way he elevates his team, even if Niumatalolo hasn’t won a conference championship or a major national award, he’s more than deserving of a place among the Top 20 college football head coaches heading into the 2017 season.