NFL preview 2017: Buffalo Bills

Is this the year that the team with the longest active playoff drought finally returns to the postseason. What can we expect from the Buffalo Bills?

If there’s one factoid that is engrained in the mind of NFL fans, it’s the fact that the Buffalo Bills own the current longest playoff drought in the league. The last time the club was in the postseason was 1999. There were 31 teams and six divisions. There were no Houston Texans and the then-St. Louis Rams would win Super Bowl XXXIV. It would prove to be the final season for Pro Football Hall of Fame quarterback Dan Marino. The Bills’ head coach was Wade Phillips and it would be Rob Johnson and not Doug Flutie at the controls against the Tennessee Titans.

Okay. So much for a trip in the DeLorean via the flux capacitor. The year is 2017 and the Bills are still the only franchise in the league not to reach the postseason this century. The team has gone through its share of starting quarterbacks, head coaches and philosophies. And unfortunately, it’s been disappointment followed by disappointment.

So here we go again. The team’s newest head coach is Sean McDermott. He’s made his rounds in the NFL and comes over after being the defensive coordinator of the Carolina Panthers in recent seasons. He succeeds Rex Ryan, whose tenure with the organization lasted 31 games and resulted in a 15-16 record. In 2015, he was part of Ron Rivera’s Super Bowl 50-bound squad. McDermott is surrounded by a pair of experience coordinators in offensive mind Rick Dennison and defensive coach Leslie Frazier.

The new sideline leader also inherits the NFL’s top-ranked ground attack each of the past two seasons. A sturdy offensive front, featuring center Eric Wood, left guard Richie Incognito and left tackle Cordy Glenn, paves the way for veteran running back LeSean McCoy. The versatile offensive weapon finished sixth in the league with 1,267 yards on the ground to go along with 13 touchdowns.

It’s the wide receiving corps that underwent a major overhaul this season thanks to free agency, trades, salary-cap casualties and a second-round pick in April’s draft. Gone are Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods, both now members of the Los Angeles Rams. Also elsewhere are Marquise Goodwin (San Francisco 49ers) and Justin Hunter (Pittsburgh Steelers). Marcus Easley is still looking for work. Enter Jordan Matthews (obtained in a trade with the Philadelphia Eagles). There’s also free agents Corey Brown (Carolina Panthers), Jeremy Butler (Los Angeles Chargers), Andre Holmes (Oakland Raiders) and Rod Streater (49ers).

The real eye-opener in terms of this group has been Holmes. However, it’s been the presence of 2017 second-round draft choice Zay Jones (East Carolina) that gives the passing attack cause for optimism. Add in tight end Charles Clay and there are some intriguing weapons here.

Of course, there’s plenty of pressure on quarterback Tyrod Taylor. He was originally a sixth-round draft choice by the Baltimore Ravens in 2011. But the former Virginia Tech product didn’t see much action with his original employer. The Bills signed him as a free agent in 2015 and he wound up winning the starting job. In two seasons and 29 total games with Buffalo, he owns a 14-14 record as a starter. He’s hit on 62.6 percent of his throws for a combined 6,058 yards.

The six-year signal-caller has thrown more than three times as many touchdowns passes (37) as interceptions (12). All told, Taylor has committed only 15 turnovers during his tenure in Orchard Park. And let’s not forget that the 28-year-old signal-caller has rushed for 1,148 yards and 10 touchdowns as well. Now he must get adjusted to a new set of pass-catchers and that could take a little time. For what it’s worth, the Bills used a fifth-round pick in April on University of Pittsburgh quarterback Nathan Peterman.

Finally, a team with this much defensive talent can’t disappoint as it has the last two years. Some of the blame goes on Rex Ryan and his insistence on trying to put a few square pegs into some round holes. This is a club suited to play the 4-3. But the veteran coach overthought things and that is an understatement. In 2016, only three teams in the NFL allowed more yards per game on the ground. And while the pass rush rebounded from 21 sacks in ’15 to 39 quarterback traps this past season, the Bills managed only nine sacks in their final seven contests.

With McDermott and Leslie at the controls, you can bet they will get the most out of a talented group of defensive linemen (more on them later), as well as a secondary that includes 2017 first-round cornerback Tre’Davious White (LSU). But are these new-look Buffalo Bills playoff worthy?

X-Factor

Fairly or unfairly, quarterback Tyrod Taylor has taken the blame for the team’s recent failures to reach the playoffs. We lean very unfairly. He’s been more efficient than many have given him credit for. And he’s only played for this club for two seasons. Yes, there’s certainly room for improvement. And a lot of that is just a matter of experience. However, if Taylor can get on the same page with all his new targets, the Bills are more than capable of stretching the field.

In Matthews, Buffalo has a sure-handed pass-catcher and a solid possession receiver. That will enable Taylor to utilize big-play weapons such as former Oakland Raiders’ wideout Andre Holmes and 2017 second-round pick Zay Jones. And don’t forget tight end Charles Clay, also more than capable of stretching the field. This season, Taylor should be complemented by an improved defense. If he does the job he’s done these past two years, this is a team on the rise.

Best case

The defense sets the tone for the club and carries this squad on its shoulder pads. And don’t bet against that happening. On more than one occasion in recent seasons (2013 Seattle Seahawks and 2015 Denver Broncos), consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks and a healthy amount of takeaways can pave the way for an NFL championship.

With McDermott and Frazier at the controls, a front four consisting of ends Shaq Lawson and Jerry Hughes and tackles Kyle Williams and unpredictable Marcell Dareus should excel. The latter was sent home from Baltimore before the team’s third preseason game due because he violated team rules) should wreak havoc on enemy quarterbacks. With Mario Williams in 2014, the Bills totaled an NFL-best 54 sacks. This after racking up 57 sacks one year earlier. No doubt the Buffalo offense wouldn’t mind seeing their defensive teammates getting into the scoring act as well.

Worst case

It proves to be yet another year where the Bills’ passing attack fails to strike fear into opposing defensive units. When you make as many changes as this team did to one position as this club did this offseason, it’s liable to have an effect on the quarterback even if the newcomers are upgrades. Yes, this is a team that has led the NFL in rushing offense each of the past two seasons.

But if the aerial game doesn’t hold up its end of the bargain, this Buffalo team will be caught in its own offensive groundhog day. Eventually teams stack the box completely. And no running game means that even the most talented of defenses will eventually wear down. And as we have seen repeatedly with this club over the past two seasons, even the most promising of starts have resulted in late-season meltdowns – this despite the always-foreboding weather in upstate New York.

Final word

When you’re the franchise with the longest current playoff drought in the NFL, reaching the postseason is obviously the best case scenario. But is McDermott’s team capable of such a move up? Contrary to some opinions, the pieces are around to challenge for a postseason invitation. This is an offense that has led the NFL in rushing two consecutive years. And with McDermott and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier returning to a 4-3 scheme this fall, the Bills have enough talent to scare a lot of teams.

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If they can manage a 4-2 record within the division and win at home against the New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins and New York Jets, don’t be surprised if this is one of the surprise teams in the league.