25 College Basketball Teams in 25 Days: No. 24 TCU Horned Frogs
By Chris Stone
Jamie Dixon has raised the bar for the TCU Horned Frogs in year two
Success in any endeavor is always measured against expectation.
For perennially elite college basketball programs, that can mean seasons ending before March’s final weekend are often viewed as a disappointment. For many other Division I teams — especially those trying to fight their way to regular relevance — simply making the NCAA Tournament should suffice.
Such is the case for the TCU Horned Frogs whose last trip to the Big Dance in 1998 predates the existence of just about every member of the freshmen class who enrolled at the school this fall.
And yet, expectations are too fickle to allow the past to simply dictate the present.
TCU’s hiring of alumnus Jamie Dixon as head coach just a few months removed from the completion of a $72 million renovation of its basketball arena represented a turning point in expectations for the team. The new coach and revitalized arena injected new life into a program stuck in the cellar of the Big 12. Dixon did little to quell the excitement, suggesting that he didn’t need much time to turn his alma mater around. His team was ready to win right away.
Dixon delivered. For just the second time in five seasons in the conference, the Horned Frogs finished in better than last place. For the first time, they won more than five games in league play. And after a putrid ending to the regular season, they bounced back by upsetting Kansas in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament and winning the NIT, giving the program its first taste of any real semblance of postseason success in over a decade.
The new head coach benefitted immensely from an influx of talent in the backcourt where Texas A&M transfer and former top 100 recruit Alex Robinson partnered with 4-star freshman Jaylen Fisher. The duo seemingly acted as a catalyst for the Horned Frogs’ stylistic transformation under Dixon.
Just one season removed from the Trent Johnson era and an offense that focused heavily on post ups and isolation plays, TCU grew to emphasize pick-and-rolls and spot up opportunities powered by the playmaking ability of Robinson and Fisher. A quick glance at the change in play type frequency (expressed as an increase or decrease in percentage) from 2015-16 to 2016-17 highlights the major differences:
That pairing will likely once again handle backcourt duties and drive the offense for Dixon and the Horned Frogs in 2017-18. Expect Robinson to do the bulk of the ball-handling, though, as Fisher’s potent outside shooting pulls defenses away from the paint off the ball. Sophomore Desmond Bane, a 37.7 percent 3-point shooter as a freshman, gives TCU another threat from behind the arc. Last season, the Horned Frogs unleashed more of their field goals attempts (34.4 percent) from 3-point range than any Dixon coached team ever had before. It’s a number that could increase in the coach’s second season as the team becomes more comfortable in its offensive scheme.
TCU balances its backcourt with one of the country’s most underrated interior threats. Rising senior Vladimir Brodziansky averaged 23.5 points and 9.5 rebounds per 40 minutes on a 62.2 true shooting percentage last season. In his final campaign, the 6-foot-10 big man will be a legitimate dark horse candidate to win Big 12 Player of the Year.
Brodziansky will be a go-to option for the Horned Frogs on the low block where he averaged 0.948 points per possession (80th percentile) on post-ups in 2016-17, per Synergy. He’s also a tenacious offensive rebounder and threatening roll man in ball screen actions with either point guard. Brodziansky could be even more dangerous this season if he becomes more comfortable on the perimeter. He made 11-of-30 3-point attempts as a junior and his quality free throw shooting (77.5 percent) suggests he has room to grow.
Defensively, the Slovakia native forms the team’s backbone. His 9.4 percent block rate ranked 30th nationally last season, per KenPom, and helps limit the Horned Frogs’ exposure in the paint.
Of course, Robinson, Fisher, Brodziansky and Bane aren’t the only highlights of TCU’s 2017-18 roster. At 6-foot-7, Kenrich Williams is an excellent combo forward, for example, and Dixon will add a pair of top 150 freshmen (R.J. Nembhard and Kevin Samuel), graduate transfer Ahmed Hamdy from VCU and Shawn Olden from New Mexico Junior College to help round out his rotation.
It’s a rotation that will shoulder the heaviest expectations that the Horned Frogs have been burdened by in decades. TCU enters the season as arguably the third best team in one of the country’s premier basketball conferences and positioned as a favorite to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time in almost 20 years. Those are standards that would have been unfathomable prior to Johnson’s firing in 2016 when the Horned Frogs finished 12-21 and dead last in the Big 12.
And that’s the funny thing about expectations. They respond quickly to change, especially significant change. Jamie Dixon’s hiring represented a new era for the TCU basketball program and he wasted no time raising the bar in Fort Worth.
Now, all the Horned Frogs have to do is rise to the occasion. The 2017-18 season is the perfect opportunity.