NHL division previews: 2017-18 Pacific Division
5th in 2017-18 Pacific Division – Calgary Flames
It’s hard to put the Flames here, it really is. They had multiple players who had very good advanced numbers in their forward corps last season, and there’s every reason to believe that they can do the same in 2017-18 as well, as they only had two players above a 1.030 PDO last season in Curtis Lazar (1.123) and Michael Stone (1.036)
The Flames do have a solid top six with players like Sean Monaham, Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk and Michael Ferland leading the way. This is accompanied by a bottom six who has only two established and proven skaters in Kris Versteeg and Jaromir Jagr.
While Jagr was arguably the steal of the summer, and the third line of Jagr, Versteeg and Sam Bennett is solid, it doesn’t assess the issues on the bottom line, a line that is likely not going to produce much of anything worth note.
They also have one of the best top two pairings of defensemen in the NHL in Mark Giordano, Dougie Hamilton, T.J. Brodie and Travis Hamonic. The bottom pairing is average, at best, and they will have to help carry the weight if they are to make another push for the playoffs.
What is easily the weakest area of the Calgary roster is goaltending. Mike Smith doesn’t exactly give the Flames much reason to be confident here. His save percentage from 2014-15 to 2016-17 was a well below average .9105. This was followed immediately by his new back up Eddie Lack, who had a .9104 in that same period. These were good for 47th and 48th in the NHL respectively.
It doesn’t get all that much better when you look at their Manpower-Adjust Save Percentages either. Smith improves to a .911 and Lack drops down to a .9097 in this. This doesn’t leave much confidence that Calgary will finish outside the bottom half for any goaltending categories this season. (all goaltending numbers from Hockey Abstract 2017, pages 136-141.)
The Flames will be hoping that the strong defense will help bring the level of play up from Smith and Lack. Don’t hold your breath on that happening.
Player to watch in 2017-18: Curtis Lazar. Lazar, a former first-round pick by the Ottawa Senators, has yet to come close to living up to his potential. Still being only 22 years old means he has time to turn it around, but just 13 goals and 26 assists in 180 NHL games doesn’t give many confidence that he has the ability to. A change in scenery and play style might be just what he needs to finally break through, relative to expectations.