Fansided

2017-18 fantasy basketball preview: Busts to avoid

By Bryan Toporek

INDEPENDENCE, OH - SEPTEMBER 7: Isaiah Thomas #3 of the Cleveland Cavaliers speaks to the media during a press conference at The Cleveland Clinic Courts on September 7, 2016 in Independence, Ohio. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by David Liam Kyle/NBAE via Getty Images)
INDEPENDENCE, OH - SEPTEMBER 7: Isaiah Thomas #3 of the Cleveland Cavaliers speaks to the media during a press conference at The Cleveland Clinic Courts on September 7, 2016 in Independence, Ohio. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by David Liam Kyle/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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LOS ANGELES, CA – OCTOBER 2: Lonzo Ball
LOS ANGELES, CA – OCTOBER 2: Lonzo Ball /

Lonzo Ball, PG, Los Angeles Lakers (Rank: 65; ADP: 43.7)

Rookies are rarely productive in fantasy basketball, particularly point guards. Last season, the only nominal rookie to finish ranked among the top 50 on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues was Joel Embiid, who missed two full years of action while recovering from a pair of foot injuries. Though last year’s rookie class was by and large disappointing, Karl-Anthony Towns, Kristaps Porzingis and Nikola Jokic were the only rookies to finish among the top 100 in 2015-16.

Lonzo Ball hopes to be the exception to that rule this coming season, and he’ll have a number of circumstances working in his favor. For one, the Los Angeles Lakers have already anointed him as the face of their franchise, with team president Magic Johnson frequently comparing the rookie floor general to himself. Head coach Luke Walton is also telling his bigs not to bring the ball up the floor in transition, according to Mike Bresnahan of Spectrum SportsNet, and to instead “find a point guard.”

Ball figures to be an elite source of assists right off the bat, as the Lakers have made no bones about their desire to run their offense through him. However, his wonky 3-point stroke is all but certain to regress after he shot above 40 percent from deep during his lone season at UCLA, which could cause his field-goal percentage to plunge. Throw in a high volume of turnovers, and it’s difficult to see how Ball returns top-50 value this season even if he does flirt with double-digit helpers each night.

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