Fantasy Baseball Fight Club: Jake Arrieta or Tanner Roark?
By Gavin Tramps
Cubs’ former Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta consistently outperforms the Washington Nationals’ Tanner Roark. Is there really any debate here?
On the surface, it looks like an easy decision to draft the Chicago Cubs’ Jake Arrieta ahead of the Washington Nationals’ Tanner Roark, but perhaps it as not as straightforward as you might first think.
In Game 4 of the NLDS, we will see both players in action as the Chicago Cubs send Arrieta to face Roark and the Nationals in a potential elimination game.
More than 100 spots separated the two starting pitchers in ADP this year but their performances were closer than that. In points leagues, Arrieta only outscored Roark by six points in the second half of the season.
Arrieta has the pedigree and the name recognition, and will again have the lower ADP next year, but would it be that surprising if Roark outpitched him in both the NLDS and the 2018 season?
Jake Arrieta (SP-CHC)
Arrieta had an ADP of 29 as the seventh starting pitcher drafted in 2017. He was taken just behind Chris Sale and Corey Kluber, the two favorites to win the AL Cy Young Award. Taken immediately after Arrieta, were the two veterans Jon Lester and Justin Verlander. Immediately following them were three pitchers with injury red-flags waving above them, Johnny Cueto, Yu Darvish and Stephen Strasburg. Arrieta’s ADP looked about right.
The right-hander was taken by the Orioles in the fifth round of the 2007 MLB June Amateur Draft but the expectations that were fueled by his impressive Minor League career were lowered as he looked like one of the worst big league starters in his first few years in the majors.
The move to Chicago revitalized his career, and with 22 wins, he secured the Cy Young Award in 2015.
This year, Arrieta won 14 of his 30 starts but only pitched 168⅓ innings. The 3.53 ERA is acceptable, but his 1.22 WHIP has steadily progressed upwards from 0.86 in his Cy Young Award-winning year.
It is unlikely that we will ever be the superstar pitcher that he was in 2014-15 when he posted 2.08 ERA with stellar 0.915 WHIP and 9.4 SO/9, but he is a usable option in all formats.
Although Arrieta failed to return the value of a top-10 starting pitcher, worryingly, the underlying stats suggest he is trending in the wrong direction.
The right-hander only completed seven innings on four occasions over 30 starts this year. He gave up homers at the highest rate since joining the Cubs (1.2 HR/9), and he is issuing more walks. Added to this, his strikeout rate has dropped over the last two seasons.
Tanner Roark (SP-WAS)
The Nationals’ starter went from a 25th round pick in the 2008 MLB June Amateur Draft to 10th in Cy Young voting in 2016, after winning 16 of his 33 starts, pitching 210 innings and posting a career-best 2.83 ERA.
On the back of this, he was taken with an ADP of 135 as the 35th starting pitcher in 2017 drafts, just behind John Lackey and Kevin Gausman, and ahead of Lance McCullers and Matt Harvey.
This year, Roark was a 13-game winner, throwing 181⅓ innings over 30 starts. He posted an ugly 4.67 ERA (although the 4.13 FIP was significantly lower).
Roark has matured into a workhorse. He threw at least 100 pitches in 25 of his starts. In points leagues, the ability to eat innings is a valuable yet underrated quality.
His strikeout rate has steadily improved over the last few years, to 2017’s career-high 8.20 SO/9. In fact, his second-half strikeout rate was even better at 9.60 SO/9, and he produced two double-digit strikeout starts.
Although his first half/second half stats suggest an encouraging improvement with 5.27 ERA and 1.45 WHIP before the All-Star break and 3.90 ERA and 1.19 WHIP after, most of the damage was done in June when he went 1-5 in the month with an 8.31 ERA.
Roark is deceiving more hitters than ever before. They are still swinging at as many balls out of the zone, but just not making contact as frequently. The increase in whiff rate is combined with a jump in his ground ball rate, up to over 51% in the second half of the season. Only eight pitchers with at least 12 starts, had a higher ground ball percentage after the All-Star break.
Fantasy Baseball Fight Club: The verdict
A lot of Arrieta’s 2018 value will depend on where he signs. Unless he re-signs with the Cubs, he will be one of the most sought-after free agents after the World Series.
Based on their FIP, there is nothing to choose between the two pitchers, in fact, look at the table and you will see the produced very similar stats in 2017.
Arrieta has the big name/big price tag combo but is he worth the investment? His workload (or lack of it) is concerning. Though, it is Roark’s improving strikeout rate, above 50% ground ball rate and innings-eating durability that will make him a very intriguing pick next season.