NBA Season Preview 2017-18: Which Miami Heat were the real Heat?

The 2016-17 Miami Heat were a tale of two seasons. Splitting the season right down the middle perfectly encapsulates how strange it was.

First 41 games: 11 wins, -4.3 opponent adjusted margin of victory (MOV), 33.8 percent 3-point shooting, 67.7 percent free throw shooting, 35.7 percent opponent 3-point shooting.

Final 41 games: 30 wins, +5.9 opponent adjusted margin of victory (MOV), 39.0 percent 3-point shooting, 73.4 percent free throw shooting, 32.8 percent opponent 3-point shooting.

The Heat’s MOV for their first 41 games translates to 29.0 expected wins over an 82 game season. Their MOV for their final 41 games translates to 56.3 expected wins. The split is staggering, but is there a reason for it?

Their is an inherent randomness in shooting on a game by game basis. At first glance, the answer comes down to the improvements in free throw and 3-point shooting, as well as their opponents’ poor 3-point shooting. Using season long 3-point shooting averages, we can estimate what a team should have shot against them and what the Heat should have shot.

The expected total points for the Heat in their first 41 games was 4141.2, 111.2 more points than they scored in reality. Their opponent scored 8.6 more points than expected over the same period as well. This means the Heat should have only been outscored by 64.2 points in their first 41 games. In reality, they were outscored by 184 points.

In the second half of the year, the Heat were expected to score 4318.8 points and to allow 4229.1 to their opponents. They outscored their opponent by 271 points when they were only expected to outscore them by 89.7.

Some of this is normal shooting noise, especially from the Heat’s offensive side. However, over the course of the season, their opponent scored 61.5 fewer points than would be expected based off average 3-point and free throw shooting. That is 0.75 extra points per game the Heat opponent did not score that they should have scored.

After accounting for shooting luck and opponent strength, the 2016-17 Heat come out as a perfectly average team. Their expected margin of victory was +0.025, nearly equal to that of an average 41 win team. So if the Heat were an average team in 2016-17 after accounting for opponent strength and shooting luck, where do they go from here?

The Heat decided to bring the band back together for the 2017-18 season. James Johnson signed a $60 million deal for four years. Dion “Kobe Wade” Waiters signed a $52 million deal over four years. Kelly Olynyk signed a $50 million deal over four years. Josh Richardson agreed to a $42 million contract extension for four years that kicks in next season, the maximum he could get from the Heat.

Pat Riley is committed to this core, for better or worse.

In a vacuum, none of those contracts are completely atrocious, though the Waiters deal is not far from it. The problem is there is no clear star player on this team. Most teams have one guy who is their 4th to 6th best player and has a contract like one of the four guys listed above. The Heat roster is only guys like that.

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My projection model has the Heat as just an average 3-point shooting team and one of the worst free throw shooting teams. They are firmly in the race for one of the last playoff spots in the East. A bad month, or half of a season like last year, will sink them this season.