NBA Season Preview 2017-18: Can the Rockets bend their offensive philosophy?

Houston Rockets’ GM Daryl Morey dramatically swooped into the Chris Paul sweepstakes and performed a brilliant sign-and-trade to grab the future Hall of Fame floor general. The cost included the following players: Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams, Sam Dekker, Montrezl Harrell, Darrun Hilliard, DeAndre Liggins, Kyle Wiltjer. While a big portion of the players weren’t playing valuable minutes, Beverley and Williams were integral to Houston’s playoff run. It’s possible that they’ll miss some of the spontaneity that Williams brought from the bench.

Last season, the Houston Rockets were among the league leaders in pace (third) and shooting efficiency (second with a 58.3 true shooting percentage). However, with their recent roster turnover, they aspire to be even greater and more creative on the offensive end. Their offensive layout could include many more dribble hand-offs and down screens for 2016-17 NBA assist leader James Harden. Introducing more variety to their scheme could pay dividends.

For the Clippers, Chris Paul only played 61 games last season but was the primary reason why they ranked fourth in true shooting percentage during the season, excelling in spread pick-and-roll scenarios.

Limiting turnovers, which seemed to plague the Rockets at times (particularly James Harden), should be much more feasible with Paul’s help — he only turned the ball over during 11.5 percent of his possessions, certainly reputable for a point guard. For reference, James Harden had a turnover percentage of 19.5, per Basketball-Reference.com.

Perhaps, the elephant in the room, offensively, is whether the Rockets and Chris Paul (who should have at least moderate usage) can reconcile their offensive philosophies. We should remain confident that Mike D’Antoni will continue to admonish a high-pace approach, even in spite of Chris Paul’s ball-control tendency. Last season’s Clippers ranked about mid-table (12th) in transition frequency but were highly proficient in this play type. They were sixth-best in points per possession, which can be, at least, partly attributed to Paul’s passing vision and accuracy. A stark increase in transition frequency could maximize Paul’s abilities in the open court.

Also, the Rockets shot a league-low 18.3 percent of their shots from mid-range after adhering to data that indicates mid-range shots are lower in the “shot hierarchy”, in terms of expected value. Instead, Houston chose to shoot efficiently at the rim and with incredible volume (46 percent of their field goal attempts) from 3-point land, as the following diagram will show. This volume was powered by ever-confident shooters Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon.

Surprisingly, they weren’t especially accurate. For example, though James Harden shot 38 percent in catch-and-shoot 3-point scenarios, his overall 3-point efficiency suffered (34 percent) because of his volume in closely guarded attempts. However, their volumetric approach was conducive to higher scoring performances and created enough gravity to open up easy looks in the restricted area.

In contrast, Chris Paul took fewer shots at the rim last season and 52 percent of his attempts in the mid-range. Pick-and-roll maestro James Harden has nearly eliminated such looks from his shot portfolio. However, because Paul shot so effectively in this range (51 percent), he justified his mid-range volume which very few players (very few) can actually do.

He’s not an unwilling 3-point shooter. He increased his 3-point rate to .37 this past season while shooting an exceptional 41.1 percent from downtown. Considering Paul’s strengths and James Harden’s willingness to attack defenses from different play types, this should be a seamless fit.

Another beneficiary of Paul’s presence should be Clint Capela who shot 64.3 percent from the field last season. With another pick-and-roll maven to facilitate spread action, he should be even better as an offensive player. At the very least, he will create gravity for wing shooters and capitalize on his vertical advantage. Lobs should be prominent, as they were for DeAndre Jordan in Los Angeles.

Now defensively, the Rockets were simply average, but they’ve bolstered their defensive personnel. Grabbing versatile wings like Luc Mbah A Moute from Los Angeles and P.J. Tucker from Toronto, they could have significant flexibility with their rotations. Mbah A Moute and Tucker can limit wings and some less physical bigs reasonably well and offset defensively inferior players, using their length to bring timely help defense and retreat back to closeout on shooters.

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Then, of course, there’s Chris Paul who is intelligent and persistent, ranking first among point guards in Defensive Real Plus-Minus. Patrick Beverley’s tenacity was advantageous for Houston in 2016-17, but unless age curtails Paul’s defensive competence, the tradeoff in defensive production doesn’t concern anyone just yet.

Overall, Houston looks to find new balance with its offensive philosophy and the recipe to become a more formidable defense. Ultimately, their defensive status will determine whether they can compete against defending champion Golden State.