MLB free agency 2017: 5 best spots for Jake Arrieta

4. Chicago Cubs

Judging by the smoke signals that have been coming out of Wrigley Field for the past few years, the Cubs are not gearing up to offer Jake Arrieta a massive deal on par with the six-year, $155-million contract given to Jon Lester before the 2015 season. It’s hard to keep two pitchers approaching their mid-30s on the roster at that price point.

Theo Epstein and the Cubs front office know they caught lightning in a bottle with Arrieta, but there are no guarantees with him. The 2017 season was the worst of the right-hander’s five in Chicago, and he battled fastball command and minor injuries all year. He did look much more like himself in the second half, going 6-3 with a 2.28 ERA.

Arrieta or not, the Cubs will need to sign a high-end starter this winter. They will enter 2018 with Lester, Kyle Hendricks and Jose Quintana locked into their rotation. There’s no depth waiting in the minor leagues and no reason to consider re-signing John Lackey, who is coming off his worst year since 2011.

The Cubs will have to decide whether or not they want to keep Arrieta, a relatively known quantity to them, or chase the other big name on the market this winter, Yu Darvish. There’s also the possibility Epstein goes the lower budget route and signs Andrew Cashner and Alex Cobb types, focuses on upgrading the bullpen and saves up his money to woo Bryce Harper next winter.