College Football New Year’s Six projections after conference championship week

Here’s the projected New Year’s Six matchups after the conclusion of conference championship week.

College football conference championship week is in the books, and the College Football Playoff committee will now spend the next several hours making its New Year’s Six selections ahead of tomorrow’s announcement. While three teams are locked into the playoff, the decision over the fourth seed won’t sit well with fans in either Columbus or Tuscaloosa for a long time.

In by far the best Power Five conference title game of the day, Ohio State held off Wisconsin 27-21 to capture the Big Ten championship. That result will cause an epic debate between a conference champion Ohio State team and one-loss Alabama in what will be the hardest decision the committee has faced in the first four years of the College Football Playoff.

Things are much clearer elsewhere with three bids locked up, including the third straight playoff appearance for current No. 1 Clemson after destroying Miami 38-3 in the ACC Championship Game. Red-hot Oklahoma also had little trouble with TCU in a 41-14 blowout victory to capture the Big 12, which should earn the Sooners the No. 2 seed on Sunday afternoon.

Perhaps the most impressive victory of the day belonged to Georgia, which avenged a loss to Auburn three weeks ago with a 28-7 romp in the SEC Championship Game to lock up a playoff berth. While the AAC Championship Game had no impact on the playoff race, UCF’s 62-55 win over Memphis in double overtime was one of the best games of the season and will guarantee a New Year’s Six berth for the Knights.

It’s difficult to predict exactly what the committee might do with the final spot in the playoff, and a couple of other major bowl bids are still up in the air. Here’s how the New Year’s Six projects following the conclusion of conference championship week.

Sugar Bowl – Clemson vs. Ohio State 

Rose Bowl – Oklahoma vs. Georgia 

Orange Bowl – Miami vs. Alabama 

Peach Bowl – UCF vs. Auburn 

Fiesta Bowl – USC vs. Wisconsin 

Cotton Bowl – Penn State vs. Washington 

The decision at No. 4 is somewhat similar to last year’s call with Penn State vs. Ohio State, when the committee ended up siding with the one-loss Buckeyes over the conference champion Nittany Lions. Even with that precedent, Alabama just doesn’t have the quality wins to justify a playoff appearance, and the committee will send Ohio State to the Sugar Bowl to face the top-ranked Tigers.

There’s little doubt about the other playoff matchup, as the Sooners and Bulldogs will receive the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds in some order. Georgia has an argument to be No. 1 as the only team to beat every opponent on its schedule, but Clemson’s margin of victory in the ACC title game was enough to keep the Tigers from dropping.

The only other New Year’s Six game with tie-ins is the Orange Bowl, which pits an ACC team against the highest-ranked remaining squad from the Big Ten or SEC. Alabama will certainly jump Wisconsin, while the other spot is guaranteed to go to Miami despite a two-game losing streak.

UCF will head to the Peach Bowl as the Group of Five champion to meet Auburn, which has a good enough resume to remain in the New Year’s Six even with three losses. Pac-12 champion USC is a likely selection for the Fiesta Bowl after topping Stanford on Friday night, and it will meet a Wisconsin team that will look to recover from its first loss this season.

Next: Ohio State edges Wisconsin in Big Ten Championship

The only other big decision will be in the Cotton Bowl, which will likely pit Penn State against either Washington or TCU. As bad as the Huskies’ schedule is, they will jump ahead of the Horned Frogs after the Big 12 Championship Game blowout.