Fantasy basketball trade reaction: Jahlil Okafor to the Brooklyn Nets
Fantasy basketball owners who wasted a late-round pick on Jahlil Okafor this fall, rejoice! The Philadelphia 76ers on Thursday may have undid your mistake.
By shipping Okafor in a package with Nik Stauskas and the New York Knicks’ 2019 second-round pick to the Brooklyn Nets in exchange for veteran forward Trevor Booker, per ESPN.com’s Zach Lowe, the Sixers finally stopped delaying the inevitable. Once they declined to pick up his fourth-year option at the end of October, Okafor was a goner at the end of the year, but they opted to have him rot on their bench for a month-and-a-half before pulling the trigger on a deal. It’s the textbook definition of selling low on a former No. 3 overall pick, but at this point, the long overdue trade may be best for all parties.
From a fantasy basketball perspective, Okafor is by far the biggest winner of this deal. He goes from jostling with Joel Embiid, Amir Johnson and Richaun Holmes for center minutes to going up against Timofey Mozgov, Tyler Zeller and rookie Jarrett Allen. Whereas Okafor couldn’t crack the Sixers’ rotation this year — heading into Friday, he has played a grand total of 25 minutes to date — he figures to quickly supplant Zeller as the Nets’ starting center once he gets up to speed with head coach Kenny Atkinson’s system.
Can Okafor match the 17.5 points on 50.8 percent shooting, 7.0 rebounds, 1.2 assists and 1.2 blocks he averaged in 30.0 minutes per game as a rookie? He finished just outside of the top 100 on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues that year, but his fantasy value precipitously declined from that point forward. As he fell out of the Sixers’ rotation last year, he failed to finish among the top 175 on a per-game basis, making him irrelevant in 10- and 12-team leagues.
Going from an overly crowded frontcourt in Philadelphia to a woefully thin one in Brooklyn should be a godsend for Okafor’s fantasy value (not to mention his real-life NBA career). It shouldn’t take long before he supplants Zeller as Brooklyn’s starting center, which will give him the opportunity to be Brooklyn’s offensive focal point while combo guard D’Angelo Russell remains on the shelf following arthroscopic knee surgery.
The Nets run the fifth-fewest post-ups of any team leaguewide, according to NBA.com, which doesn’t play to Okafor’s offensive strengths. However, when Brook Lopez was in Brooklyn last season, the Nets ran the 10th-most post-ups, nearly double the frequency they’re using this year. When you’re relying on a washed-up veteran, a middling sixth-year journeyman and a rookie, can anyone blame head coach Kenny Atkinson for not pounding the ball down low possession after possession?
Going from the Sixers’ fourth-ranked pace (via NBA.com) to the Nets’ third-ranked attack won’t be a drastic upgrade on that front — it isn’t as if Okafor was playing in a grind-it-out system like those found in Memphis or Utah — but going from out of the rotation to a potential starting spot merits attention from fantasy owners. If you have someone expendable at the end of your bench, Okafor’s potentially enormous upside justifies making the switch. Atkinson has been doling out minutes judiciously, as Brooklyn has eight players averaging at least 20 minutes per game (not counting Jeremy Lin, who suffered a season-ending injury on opening night) but none above 30. If that holds true even once Okafor works his way into the Nets’ rotation, he’ll top out at middle-round value (at best), and he could settle in as a fringe top-100 option.
Like Okafor, Stauskas wasn’t in the Sixers’ rotation, so the move to Brooklyn could give him a chance to begin playing regular minutes. Granted, he’s going up against the likes of Russell, Allen Crabbe, Spencer Dinwiddie and Caris LeVert for said playing time, so expecting anything more than 10-15 minutes out of him per night is overly optimistic for now. Keep him on the waiver wire in leagues of all sizes, and don’t expect him to have a materially negative difference on the fantasy value of any of the aforementioned Brooklyn guards or wings.
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The same goes for Booker, who Sixers head coach Brett Brown admired in part because of his ability to “handle not [playing],” as he told reporters prior to the team’s 107-104 loss against the Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday. That doesn’t portend a huge role in Philadelphia’s rotation, particularly at first as he grows acclimated to Brown’s system. While Booker’s presence detracts from Holmes’ later-season breakout upside, he should have no noticeable effect on the fantasy value of Embiid, Ben Simmons or Dario Saric.
All ownership percentages via ESPN.com. All average draft position info via FantasyPros. All rankings via Basketball Monster are based on nine-category leagues and are current heading into Friday, Dec. 8.