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What losing Jarrey Foster means for SMU’s season

By Chris Stone

UNIVERSITY PARK, TX - JANUARY 10: Southern Methodist Mustangs guard Jarrey Foster (10) drives to the basket during the game between SMU and Temple on January 10, 2018, at Moody Coliseum in Dallas, TX. (Photo by George Walker/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
UNIVERSITY PARK, TX - JANUARY 10: Southern Methodist Mustangs guard Jarrey Foster (10) drives to the basket during the game between SMU and Temple on January 10, 2018, at Moody Coliseum in Dallas, TX. (Photo by George Walker/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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Losing Jarrey Foster puts SMU in a precarious position.

SMU junior Jarrey Foster will miss the remainder of the season after an MRI on Monday revealed he’d suffered a partially torn ACL, according to reports. 247Sports had the news first.

The 21-yard-old budding NBA prospect injured his knee on a drive to the basket against Wichita State last Wednesday. Foster was averaging 13.2 points and 5.9 rebounds per game.

Although the Mustangs pulled off the upset against the Shockers behind 33 points from Shake Milton and subsequently beat Tulane at home, Foster’s injury figures to have significant implications for a team battling for a spot in the NCAA Tournament.

Foster’s absence will be felt most prominently on the defensive end. According to Hoop Lens’ lineup data, the Mustangs are conceding 1.05 points per possession (PPP) this season with Foster on the bench compared to 0.91 PPP with him on the floor. While Foster’s absence accounts for just over 300 possessions this season — a particularly small sample size subject to plenty of variance — there are concerning signs.

Often times, disparities in college basketball lineup data exist because of volatile 3-point shooting, but in Foster’s case, that number has been relatively stable for opponents whether or not he’s been on the floor (34.3 vs. 33.1 percent).

Instead, the Mustangs are getting torched inside the arc without Foster on the court, which is worrisome considering opponent 2-point percentage stabilizes much more quickly than opponent 3-point percentage.  Opponents are converting 54.2 percent of their 2s with Foster out compared to just 45.1 percent with him on the floor.

The drop off makes sense. Foster is an elite help defender at the rim despite standing just 6-foot-6. He posted a 5.1 percent block rate and averaged 1.5 blocks per 40 minutes when healthy this season. By the numbers, he’s SMU’s most effective rim protector.

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Without Foster, the Mustangs are forced to downsize as they did with their starting lineup against Tulane, meaning less size and length to defend those 2-point shots. Junior Jahmal McMurray slots in at the point while Jimmy Whitt, Ben Emelogu and Milton slide down a position. Emelogu, a 6-foot-5 senior takes over Foster’s spot. His 1.1 percent block rate doesn’t quite fill the void.

SMU already ranks 64th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Presumably, that number will fall as opponents shoot better on 2s without Foster on the floor and it could mean more losses unless Milton offers a few more heroic performances like the one he delivered against Wichita State last week.