NBA Trade Deadline portfolio 2018: Marc Gasol

The Grizzlies and popular opinion appear to be at an impasse, and it likely means Marc Gasol will remain in Memphis.

Since Nov. 11, the Grizzlies are 12-25. They have a bottom-six offense and even their signature defense has fallen off, settling in the bottom half of the league despite the presence of Gasol at center. Memphis is eight games out of the playoffs, having already fired their coach this year and not noticing much of a difference in their performance.

The real problem is that Gasol’s partner in crime, Mike Conley, has played just 12 games all year. It was recently announced that Conley will undergo surgery for a bone protrusion in his left heel that will steal the rest of his season. With Conley out and Gasol going through a down season, the Grizzlies have relied on players like Tyreke Evans, rookie Dillon Brooks and retread Mario Chalmers far too much.

It looks like some sort of rebuild is inevitable in Memphis, even if the two starts stay in place.

Gasol is due nearly $73 million over the next three seasons (including this one) after signing a maximum contract extension in the summer of 2015. He and teammates Conley and Chandler Parsons together basically take the Grizzlies over the cap on their own after agreeing to maximum contracts in consecutive summers.

Any team taking back Gasol’s salary will have to feel confident that the nine-year veteran has a return to form in him, after seeing him fall to 42 percent shooting and the worst defensive metrics of his career this season. Gasol is being paid as if he’s one of the best big men in the NBA, but despite adding the 3-point shot to his game last season, he has not played up to his contract.

Here’s this from an early-January trade deadline preview column from ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski:

"“Teams are curious to study Memphis’ plans with center Marc Gasol, but so far, the Grizzlies say they’re planning to keep him.”"

That’s the only mention of trade whispers about either one of Memphis’ Grit-n-Grind-era studs. The team faces a potentially catastrophic plunge in revenue if they commit to a full rebuild. Despite the draw of getting a pick at the top of the loaded 2018 draft, Memphis is already headed toward the middle of the lottery with Conley out and Gasol playing poorly. They may not need to tank in order to reset with a high pick this summer.

If they do trade Gasol, it makes sense that they might explore a situation in which they take on an unwanted player from another team in return. Very few teams have the expiring money to make a deal work that resets Memphis’ cap in a single offseason. Even fewer of those teams would actually want Gasol.

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Two teams that make some sense as Gasol landing places along those lines: Portland and Detroit. Each has big contracts that they don’t want, and could also send back a younger, underperforming center to replace Gasol for the Grizzlies immediately. Memphis could take back Andre Drummond or Jusuf Nurkic and avoid a complete tank job. If they were willing to get more risky, they could potentially fetch even bigger assets from the Blazers or Pistons, including young players like Stanley Johnson or Zach Collins.

The biggest concerns for Memphis seem to be financial flexibility and competitiveness. If they can show their fans that they still want to compete with Conley and a younger core (while avoiding the luxury tax), perhaps they pull the trigger on a deal.