Chad Green: An underrated Yankee, a fantasy oxymoron
By Gavin Tramps
It is not often that a player in the iconic pinstripes goes unnoticed in fantasy baseball, but Chad Green could be one of the most underappreciated pitchers.
There is an inevitability that the New York Yankees will be over-drafted. Plenty of fantasy teams were hurt last season by reaching for Aroldis Chapman (ADP 51 – 2nd RP), Masahiro Tanaka (ADP 73 – 18th SP) and Dellin Betances (ADP 160 – 22nd RP).
Luis Severino was an undisputed an ace but he wasn’t underrated preseason, he just wasn’t very good. With poor fastball command and an average slider, he looked destined for a life in the bullpen until he developed that sensational changeup. Suddenly all of his other pitches improved and a star was born.
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The Yankees’ rotation of Severino, Tanaka, CC Sabathia, Sonny Gray and Jordan Montgomery looks set, and they have assembled a deadly bullpen with Chapman and Betances supported by David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, Chasen Shreve and Adam Warren.
Last season, Chad Green was the Yankees’ best reliever. He led the bullpen with 103 strikeouts, 1.83 ERA (and an even lower FIP) and 0.74 WHIP. Despite only making his season debut on May 9, the 26-year-old ranked sixth among all relievers with fWAR 2.3.
Regardless of the size of your league, you need to know more about Green. You probably know that he is a ‘failed starter’ having posted a 5.94 ERA over eight MLB starts in 2016. You might not realize that the right-hander was one of only four pitchers last year with a strikeout rate over 40%.
His stuff is so much better than anything Severino offered before his breakout, and Yankees’ GM Brian Cashman has confirmed that Green will enter Spring Training to compete for a rotation spot.
He has an excellent mid-90s fastball with lots of movement that flirts with triple-digits, off of which batters are only hitting 0.110. It produces 17% swinging strikes, which is elite. His arsenal includes a second strikeout pitch of a slider, and he has a serviceable cutter. Green also has the ability to throw a changeup, splitter and sinker, but these are seldom used when working from the bullpen.
As prolific baseball writer Jeff Sullivan once commented:
"Anyone can get a hitter to miss a slider low off the plate; it takes something more to get a whiff in the hitting area."
The ability to get a swing and miss on a ball thrown in the strike zone is a sign of overpowering stuff, and Green was overpowering last year.
In the last five seasons, only five players have produced better Z-Contact% rates than the 72.2% achieved by Green in 2017. The list includes the illustrious trio of Chapman, Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen. He is in very good company.
If Green gets the opportunity to start, he has the potential to be a fantasy baseball superstar that you can get with a late-round pick. Don’t get hung up on the ‘failed starter’ tag. He posted 1.52 ERA with seven wins in 16 starts in Triple-A in 2016, and that was before he developed the killer fastball.