NCAA Tournament 2018: 5 reasons Virginia won’t win it all
By Chris Stone
Virginia’s the NCAA Tournament’s overall No. 1 seed, but they won’t be cutting down any nets.
The Virginia Cavaliers are your overall No. 1 seed heading into the NCAA Tournament, but they won’t be needing a ladder in San Antonio. From historical perspectives to the struggling offense to talent deficits, here’s a look at the troubles facing the Cavaliers.
This is the first in a series of posts examining why each of the tournament’s No. 1 seeds — Virginia, Villanova, Xavier and Kansas — won’t win it all.
1. Teams like Virginia haven’t historically won in March
It’s well known that Virginia head coach Tony Bennett has never taken a team to the Final Four. Bennett is arguably the top head coach in the country to have never done so. However, perhaps there’s a reason the 48-year old has missed out.
Bennett’s committed to a strict system that features an impressive and effective pack line defense as well as a slow pace of play. Well, thanks to barttorvik.com, we can compare how teams that have produced similarly and played at a familiar tempo have faired in the NCAA Tournament dating back to 2008. It’s not promising for the Cavaliers:
Half of Virginia’s efficiency comparables lost before getting out of the first weekend. Just two of them managed to make the Elite Eight or better. None of them have managed to cut down the nets. So, what’s the problem?
When a team plays at a slow pace and minimizes possessions over the course of individual games, the margins for error narrow. A bucket here or a miss there can be costly. It raises the variance involved. It’s not that Virginia isn’t necessarily a great basketball team — in fact, these Cavaliers are probably the best college basketball has to offer this season — but when you increase the variance involved, things can get funky in a win or go home environment.