NCAA Tournament 2018: 5 reasons Villanova won’t win it all

1. The difficult Midwest looms

Speaking of tough matchups… The Midwest Region is widely regarded as the most difficult in the NCAA Tournament and lo and behold it sits opposite Villanova in a potential Final Four meeting. The Midwest features three of the top ten teams in the country — Duke, Kansas and Michigan State — according to adjusted efficiency margin. All three of them would present challenges to the Wildcats.

No. 1 seed Kansas plays a similar four out, one in offensive style to Villanova. Almost certainly the game would devolve into a shootout from behind the arc where the Jayhawks are connecting on 40.3 percent of their attempts this season. Although the Wildcats rate out as the better defensive squad, Kansas is one of the few teams that can match their offensive firepower.

Then there’s No. 2 seed Duke. The Blue Devils have turned into one of the best defenses in college basketball over the last month as a result of a switch to a permanent 2-3 zone. They play their wings high in an effort to contest opposing 3-pointers and so far teams have had trouble knocking down triples against them. Duke’s frontline also features Marvin Bagley III, one of the most athletically dominant players in college basketball. Would the Wildcats have an appropriate defender for him? Probably not.

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Finally, there’s No. 3 Michigan State. The Spartans are probably the least scary team in the bunch given their tendency to turn the ball over, but they’re still more talented than Villanova from top to bottom. Michigan State’s starting lineup features a pair of future lottery picks in Miles Bridges and Jaren Jackson Jr. The battle of the Bridges would be a fascinating one to watch, but it’s not clear who could handle Jackson’s pick-and-pop game.

Certainly Villanova would likely be favored slightly in all three of the above matchups, but they present plenty of difficulties on the road to a title.