Could this be more than just one last hurrah for the Baltimore Orioles?

The Baltimore Orioles are gearing up for one last run before their core starts falling apart.

On the heels of a surprising run to the playoffs in 2016, the Baltimore Orioles started 2017 with another scorching-hot start. For the second year in a row, they were the last MLB team to lose a game, and their record sat at 22-10 on May 9th. Things looked even better on May 10th, when the O’s carried a 6-2 lead into the eighth inning of a game against the Washington Nationals and were set to go to 23-10.

It was all downhill from there for the Birds. In the absence of All-Star closer Zach Britton, Brad Brach blew the save and the Orioles went on a skid that saw them go 18-36 over a span of nearly two months. The hot start was obviously fool’s gold, as the Orioles never had the pitching to sustain a winning record.

By the end of the year, the Orioles rotation would fall to dead last in all of baseball with an ugly 5.70 ERA and the team suffered their first losing season since 2011 and wound up in last place in the AL East with a 75-87 record. The collapse should have set up the beginning of the end for the Orioles as Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Britton, and Brach all hit free agency after the 2018 season.

Instead, the Orioles have pushed all their chips to the middle of the table for one last run at a World Series before their gang breaks up. Free-agent starters Andrew Cashner and Alex Cobb have been added to fix up the rotation, the latter on a four-year deal that is the richest the franchise has ever given to a pitcher. Machado’s name floated on the trade block in December and January, but he now looks invigorated over the prospect of spending a full season at shortstop. The Orioles have the lineup in place to hang in a difficult division. It will all come down to the pitching.

Best Case Scenario

The Orioles have significantly upgraded their rotation by swapping out Ubaldo Jimenez and Wade Miley for Cobb and Cashner. With another full offseason to recover from the shoulder issues that rendered him effectively useless on an MLB mound last year, Chris Tillman looks like a prime candidate for a comeback season. Remember, Tillman was the de facto ace of the staff every year from 2012 to 2016 and was on track to win 20 games in 2016 before his injuries flared up.

It cannot be understated how awful the Orioles rotation was last year. The staff had a collective ERA of 5.56 in the first inning, putting the offense behind the eight ball far too often. Baltimore was outscored by nearly 100 runs last year, but that entire deficit can be wiped away if the rotation even goes from horrible to slightly below average.

Led by Manny Machado in his walk year and last year’s breakout All-Star Jonathan Schoop, the Orioles figure to do plenty of damage at the plate again in 2018. Tim Beckham was also a huge sparkplug after the trade deadline last year, and the Orioles get him for a full season. Everyone kept waiting for Trey Mancini to fall apart last year, but it never happened. If he avoids the sophomore slump, the Orioles offense will be deadly.

Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo look like regrettable signings now, but if both bounce back to hit 40 home runs, the Orioles won’t have a problem keeping pace with the New York Yankees. The bullpen holds on for a few months while Zach Britton recovers from his Achilles injury and slams the door. Cashner and Cobb defy the projection models and deliver sub-4.00 ERAs while Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman finally take a step forward and live up to their potential as frontline starters. If all of this breaks right, the Orioles can be back in the playoffs as a Wild Card and could even make a run at the AL East crown.

Worst Case Scenario

No starting pitcher the Orioles have ever signed as a free agent has worked out very well, and there is plenty of downside risk to the Cobb and Cashner deals. Health isn’t a major concern for either, just their ability to hold up in the homer-happy confines of Camden Yards and the AL East. Cashner rode his pitch-to-contact style to good results in Texas last year, but striking out only 4.6 per nine is a recipe for disaster in this division.

Cobb pitched effectively last year in his first full season back from Tommy John and has always gotten good results against AL East opponents during his time with the Tampa Bay Rays. His 3.66 ERA last year looks good in a vacuum, but the right-hander’s home-road splits paint a different picture. Cobb will no longer be making half his starts in cavernous Tropicana Park. He is unable to harness his splitter, and the strikeouts stay down again.

For as good as the Orioles offense can be at times, there can be long stretches where it is extremely frustrating to watch the hack-happy approach at the plate. Machado struggled in the first half last year, and the same thing happens again this year while he tries to prove himself worthy of a $300-million contract. Schoop is unable to sustain last year’s improvements in the plate discipline department and regresses. Jones continues to age in center field and is below league average as a hitter and defender.

In the ultimate worst-case scenario for the Orioles, the team gets off to a slow start, hits the All-Star break right around .500, before refusing to start a rebuild by trading Machado. Another August hot streak gives false hope that a Wild Card berth is in reach before a September swoon snaps things back to reality. The Orioles finish below .500 and fail to trade any of their pending free agents for quality prospects, setting up a lengthy and more difficult rebuild.

Team MVP

Manny Machado — SS

For the first time in his MLB career, Manny Machado will be playing his natural position, shortstop, on Opening Day. The 25-year-old is absolutely pumped about the move back to the keystone position and has been on a tear in Spring Training. Machado has also remade his body by improving his diet over the winter and looks ready to have the year of his life.

It couldn’t come at a better time for the player or the team.

While 2017 will ultimately go down as a forgettable year for the three-time All-Star, his epic month of August does serve as a reminder of what Manny Machado is capable of when locked in. He hit .341/.348/.690 for the month with six doubles, a triple, 12 home runs and 35 RBI. The Orioles will finally get a full season of MVP production from Machado in his walk year. He will be the team MVP, but also a strong contender for AL MVP.

Prediction

The Orioles get just enough out of their starting rotation to make a run at the Wild Card. Machado has a god-like year leading up to free agency and Buck Showalter is able to work his magic around the fringes of his roster with platoon hitters and middle relievers. Ultimately, though, the Orioles come up just short in their pursuit of the AL’s final playoff spot, falling victim to the quality of their division while the Minnesota Twins feast on the bottom feeders in the Central to claim the final playoff spot.