Can New York Mets stay healthy, or will 2018 be a lost year?

After an extremely disappointing season derailed by injuries, the Mets are hoping a healthy young pitching staff can lead the team to the playoffs.

The Mets came into the season with high expectations after looking in the 2015 Wild Card game.  They were quickly met with a barrage of injuries that made them uncompetitive.  Just to list some notable ones, Yoenis Cespedes’s hamstring, Matt Harvey’s shoulder, Jeurys Familia’s shoulder, and Noah Syndergaard’s lat.  Now, gone is longtime trainer Ray Ramirez, and in is fresh bodies and new training programs.

New York is hoping for better luck with the injury bug so they can potentially push the Nationals for the division lead and at least a Wild Card spot.  They have gone and added depth.  That means Jason Vargas/Anthony Swarzak on the mound, and Adrian Gonzalez/Todd Frazier in the field.  Granted, Vargas fractured his hand but shouldn’t miss more than a week of the season.

The Mets need to hope that their players simply had down years last year if they plan on competing with the older lineup they have.

Best Case Scenario

BEING HEALTHY.  It doesn’t get more complicated than that.  If the Mets can stay healthy they will have one of the best starting rotations in baseball and a lineup that can score enough to support the pitching staff.  The potential staff of Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Harvey, Steven Matz, and Zach Wheeler is one that can dominate lineups.  They have an average career WHIP of 1.21 which would almost certainly put them in the top 10 in the league.

The back-end of the bullpen should hold down any leads given to them.  They have three outstanding right-handed pitchers in Jeurys Familia, A.J. Ramos, and Anthony Swarzak, all of whom have stranded at least 70% of runners in 2 of the last 3 seasons per FanGraphs.  Jerry Blevins will be able to take care of big lefties, including Bryce Harper in the division, as he has a 0.88 WHIP against them.  So while it may feel as though he is paid 7 million dollars to face one batter a game, it is necessary when the other three bullpen stars are all right-handed throwers.

Offensively, the Mets will once again be riding the bat of Yoenis Cespedes.  The two biggest supporting bats he has are Jay Bruce and Michael Conforto.  Bruce is back after hitting 36 home runs last year, and Conforto is looking to build on a strong second year.  Where defensive ace Juan Lagares, who ranked 18th in outs above average last season, fits in is a question, but we can assume he will be a defensive substitution and start against left-handed pitchers.  If the outfield plays to their abilities and is properly managed they will be the strength of this offense.

In the infield, the Mets are far from the 2006 days of Carlos Delgado, Jose Reyes, and David Wright.  Even though two of those guys are on the payroll, they don’t figure to play very much this season.  They need to resurrect Adrian Gonzalez, the 5-time All-Star, Todd Frazier, who must become the 40 home run Toddfather he once was, and Asdrubal Cabrera.  This, combined with a breakout season from Amed Rosario is exactly what the Mets are hoping for.

Worst Case Scenario

Syndergaard, Harvey, Matz, and Wheeler don’t return to their stellar form.  All four of these pitchers are coming off of injuries and could drastically underperform.  The Mets rely heavily on pitching.  The team is not offensively talented, they finished in the bottom half of the league in runs scored last season.  Last year the Mets gave up around 5 earned runs per game and scored about 4.5 runs per game.  They need a healthy pitching staff to help them give up 4 earned runs per game because they should expect similar offensive production.

The offensive underperforming or the injury bug coming back would also be a killer, but the pitching is more important.  The Mets must ride their pitching staff to have success.  No pitching staff equals no playoff push for this team.

Team MVP

Noah Syndergaard – RHP

While it was tempting to puts Yoenis Cespedes and his .900 OPS with the Mets here, it must be someone from the pitching staff.

Syndergaard isn’t pitching to his favorite catcher, Rene Rivera, but when he starts the Mets have an increased chance to win.  In his last full season, he only let up 11 home runs despite facing 744 batters.  That was good for the best FIP in the league, implying he was better than his stats indicated.  Take that season, and add the 93 mph slider he debuted last season and forget it, he will dominate.

Prediction

The Mets floor is a slightly below average team, while their ceiling is a division winner.  That being said, they probably won’t pass the Nationals in the division.  This puts our prediction for the Mets as second place in a weak NL East division.

Expect the Mets to give their fans a reason to believe this year.