Celtics and Bucks will be a battle of versatility
The second season is about to begin. The 2018 NBA Playoffs get underway on Saturday as teams attempt to make their run towards a championship. But, before dreams of making the NBA Finals can be realized, teams have to get out of the first round. One of the first round series that will surely have plenty of eyes on it is the matchup between the No. 2 seed Boston Celtics and the No. 7 seed Milwaukee Bucks.
The Celtics made a major makeover to their roster over the summer. However, their two biggest additions — Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward — will miss the entire postseason. Hayward has been sidelined since suffering a gruesome injury on opening night. Irving, has battled knee issues and soreness all season before electing to shut it down for the year and get surgery. Meanwhile, Brad Stevens has crafted a defensive juggernaut out of the remaining pieces at his disposal. Boston finished with the best defensive efficiency in the NBA allowing a stingy 101.5 points per 100 possessions.
Milwaukee also had their injury issues — former second overall pick Jabari Parker was out until February rehabbing a torn ACL — but their main change this year came on the bench. Jason Kidd was ousted in late January after the team failed to show improvements from their 42-40 finish a year ago (they were just a game over .500 when Kidd was relieved of his coaching duties). Under interim head coach, Joe Punty, the results haven’t been much better, but the belief is that the man who will be calling the shots on the sidelines in Milwaukee next year isn’t currently with the team.
As the season dragged to a finish and the injuries piled up in Boston (Marcus Smart is also out along with Hayward and Irving) the Celtics became the hunted as teams at the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings sought ways to ensure that they would match up with the wounded to start the postseason. Milwaukee ended up securing this spot — thanks to a blowout loss in Philadelphia and the Miami Heat beating the Toronto Raptors in overtime — but as the saying goes, be careful what you wish for.
The Bucks ace in the hole has always been the combination of size, athleticism, and versatility that their roster possesses. They can have lineups where every player on the floor is 6-foot-5 or taller. They can put five of the most athletic players at their given position on the floor at any time. They also have players like Parker, Antetokounmpo, and Khris Middleton that can play a range of positions offensively and defensively.
Yet, Danny Ainge has morphed the Celtics into a team with a similar make up. In the past two drafts, Ainge has brought in versatile wings Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Semi Ojeleye, Abdel Nader, and Guerschon Yabusele, each of whom fall within a range of 6-foot-6 to 6-foot-8 and 205 to 260 pounds.
Thanks to the matchup stats on NBA.com, we can see that one of these pieces (Tatum) has already caused some issues for one Bucks player in particular. In the 19.3 possessions per game when Tatum was the main defender on Khris Middleton, the latter averaged 20.1 points less than his average per 100 possessions. Tatum’s ability to become an impact defender in his first season has been a huge help to the Celtics.
Brown came in with a defense-first reputation and hasn’t let anyone down in that area. It is likely we could see the second-year wing guard an assortment of different Bucks in this series from guards (Eric Bledsoe, Malcolm Brogdon) to wings (Middleton) to forwards (Antetokounpo, Parker) as he’s one of Stevens favorite pawns.
While Tatum and Brown project to one day match the talent of Parker and Middleton, there’s no one there who holds a candle to Antetokounmpo. The Greek Freak has become one of the best players in the NBA after being selected No. 15 overall in the 2013 NBA Draft. Had Milwaukee been able to secure a better record Antetokounmpo could’ve been a serious MVP candidate this season. In year five, he’s averaging career high’s in points (26.9), field goal percentage (52.9), rebounds (10), and usage rate (31.2). The numbers bear out the development the 23-year-old has made.
He gives the Bucks the advantage in transition — they finished third in transition frequency with 18.4 percent of their plays being fastbreaks — because he is able to grab rebounds and immediately start the break. At 6-foot-11, with strides like a gazelle, it doesn’t take Antetokounmpo long to change ends of the floor.
Yet, one of the ways the Celtics were able to construct the best defensive unit in the league was by not allowing easy baskets in the open floor. They topped the league in defensive transition efficiency this season per CleaningTheGlass.
Another stat to keep an eye on in this series is going to be corner 3-pointers. According to CleaningTheGlass, Boston was top five in every defensive field goal percentage by location stat except for two (At Rim and Corner 3-Pointers). As a team, the Bucks had the tenth best field goal percentage in the NBA on Corner 3-Pointers (40.6).
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With Punty taking over later in the season it remains to be seen if he has any tricks up his sleeves to unleash during the playoffs. Could we get an extended look at Antetokounmpo at center (he did a good job stifling Al Horford in the 31 possessions where he was the primary defender) or any other changes to throw a wrench in Boston’s gameplan? Best believe that Stevens and his staff are already working on potential counters.
These two teams really give off a yin and yang vibe heading into this series. Milwaukee is going to go as far as their star player takes them whereas the Celtics are going to use their depth and versatility to try and get a victory in any way possible. Brad Stevens is an X’s and O’s genius that has molded Boston into a top 10 half court offense, meanwhile Joe Punty has had less than half a season to input an offensive style and therefor the Bucks rely on transition to create offense. Finally, in the most basic of senses, Boston overachieved this season and Milwaukee ghastly underachieved.