NBA Playoffs 2018: 5 keys to Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat matchup

2. How will the Heat defend Simmons?

In the 140 minutes Simmons played against the Heat this season, Philadelphia averaged a respectable 105.6 points per 100 possessions. During the 52 minutes in which he caught a breather during one of the four regular-season matchups, the Sixers plunged to a horrendous 87.5 per 100, which would have been a full 13 points lower than the Phoenix Suns’ league-worst mark.

Having Fultz back in the fold should help mitigate some of that drop-off, as this year’s No. 1 overall pick is becoming increasingly comfortable running Philly’s second unit. But for the Heat to pull off the upset against the Sixers, they’ll still need to slow Simmons down from the meteoric tear he’s been on over the past few weeks.

James Johnson is likely to get the first crack at Simmons, but it’ll require a teamwide effort from the Heat to harass him. Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson likewise figure to take turns guarding the Rookie of the Year front-runner, although Simmons went 1-of-5 against Johnson and 4-of-5 against all other Heat players in their most recent matchup on March 8. In Philly’s other loss against Miami back at the end of February, Winslow served as Simmons’ primary defender (33 possessions), but Richardson and Dwyane Wade drew that assignment at times, too.

However, slotting Johnson on Simmons causes matchup problems elsewhere in Miami’s starting lineup, as Nekias Duncan of BBALLBREAKDOWN and the Miami Heat Beat podcast noted Thursday. Since the Sixers roll out a supersized starting five, Richardson often wound up guarding Saric during the regular season, which helps to explain why the Croatian big man led all Philadelphia players in points and rebounds against the Heat.

Between Johnson, Winslow and Richardson, Miami touts the personnel to make life difficult for Simmons throughout this series. It’ll be on Spoelstra to tinker with his rotations and deploy the right personnel groupings to avoid grievous mismatches elsewhere.

Next: 1. Which role players catch fire?