Each MLB team’s current Hall of Famer
Seattle Mariners: Felix Hernandez
This was a whole different story less than a week ago when Ichiro Suzuki was still an active member of the Seattle Mariners. While he has left the window to playing open, it was better to choose a player still on the field for the Mariners, and Felix makes a perfect option just to discuss how he could end up in the MLB Hall of Fame with a bit of effort at the end of his career.
Jay Jaffe at Fangraphs did a tremendous breakdown of Felix’s opportunities to get into the Hall of Fame. Two things are notable in Jaffe’s research.
First, the issue we have right now with pitchers making the Hall of Fame is a real one. Jaffe relates this to an issue with voters expecting standards of pitchers from previous generations, but I also believe that we have seen a shift in mindset due to the prevalence of Tommy John surgery and deep rotations that one starter is much more fungible and easily ignored as far as “stardom” is concerned.
A comparison from another sport would be in football. Starting pitchers used to be seen as the quarterback is viewed in football. You build your offense, your defense, and your lineup around the guy on the mound that day. The reason many of the best starters won a lot of 1-0 games was that their managers often would put the best defenders in the lineup on that day, leaving the offense less than its best. Now, starters are seen as running backs, with no team really leaning on just one, often featuring multiple backs.
The second notable thing from Jaffe was his mention of Felix alongside CC Sabathia in innings thrown through their age 31 seasons in the past 20-25 years. CC is exactly the guy who Felix should model the second chapter of his career after. Sabathia has gone from a guy who threw 5 pitches (4-seam, 2-seam, change, slider, curve), and he ended up having to go to a refined approach where he induced more weak contact, replacing his curve with a cutter. He’s also gone from a 45-55% use of his four-seam fastball at his best to a mix where his cutter and slider combine for 60-70% of his pitches.
For Felix, that pitch mix will need to go from a mix with 60% fastball (typically about 20% four-seam, 40% two-seam) to a mix of more of his change, curve, and a sinker or cutter to use as a fastball to pair with his two-seam fastball. He’s been toying with both fastball variants with some success in movement on both pitches, but reportedly he does not yet trust them enough to locate them to throw them in game.
If he can orchestrate that second chapter, he’ll be going from King Felix to MLB Hall of Fame member Felix.
Next: Marlins