FanDuel Lineup and Picks for Friday, May 18
Cubs at Reds
Cubs Probable Starter – Kyle Hendricks, RHP
3.20 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 18.7 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .200 average, .317 wOBA, 38.2 fly ball rate and 28.1 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .239 average, .274 wOBA, 24.7 fly ball rate and 32.0 hard contact rate
You’ve got a decent shot at a quality star with Hendricks but that’s about where the upside ends. When a pitcher doesn’t miss a ton of bats, Cincinnati isn’t exactly the best place to pitch. He does a nice job of limiting hard contact and fly balls, but the interest this side of the game is limited at best. The only two hitters that I would chase here are Eugenio Suarez and Joey Votto.
Reds Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez
Reds Probable Starter – Homer Bailey, RHP
5.59 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 13.4 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .292 average, .403 wOBA, 42.0 fly ball rate and 32.5 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .260 average, .336 wOBA, 42.2 fly ball rate and 48.9 hard contact rate
I really want a piece of this Cubs offense as they have a dream matchup against Bailey. He’s giving up oodles of fly balls in a hitter’s park. His hard contact rate is through the roof, especially to righty bats. It’s a little hard to get to some of these hitters if you go Scherzer but one way to get a piece is to go with Albert Almora. He’s kind of average against righty pitching but Bailey is far enough below average I’m not that worried. Kyle Schwarber is the next cheapest and he can’t ask for much more than facing Bailey tonight.
Cubs Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Albert Almora
Secondary Options – Willson Contreras
Home Run Pick – Albert Almora and Kyle Schwarber
Marlins at Braves
Marlins Probable Starter – Dan Straily, RHP
5.54 ERA, 1.77 WHIP and 12.7 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .296 average, .478 wOBA, 31.8 fly ball rate and 56.5 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .174 average, .319 wOBA, 52.6 fly ball rate and 42.1 hard contact rate
This is kind of a weird spot for Straily tonight. On the one hand, all his stats would point to having some Braves in the lineup. The other hand is Straily actually just saw this lineup and had a passable game. It certainly didn’t pay to have a Braves stack last time around. I think this might be a spot where I would just stick with lefty bats. I(sadly) don’t think I’ll have a ton of Braves exposure tonight. If you think Straily gets blasted the second time around, you can add in Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna.
Braves Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Freddie Freeman
Secondary Options – Nick Markakis, Ender Inciarte
Braves Probable Starter – Sean Newcomb, LHP
2.51 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 28.4 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .148 average, .290 wOBA, 47.4 fly ball rate and 36.8 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .199 average, .256 wOBA, 33.0 fly ball rate and 24.2 hard contact rate
As much as I love Newcomb, I’m not sure I can get on board with his price tonight. He’s only $800 less than deGrom and although Newcomb has been excellent so far, he does carry plenty of downside. His control isn’t always the best and if he gets wild, you could get a start of five innings with six strikeouts and two earned runs. That’s likely not going to end well since Scherzer should be relatively highly owned. I don’t want anything to do with the Marlins bats tonight.
Marlins Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – None
Home Run Pick – Freddie Freeman