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Things could be about to get tough for these ace pitchers

By Rucker Haringey

NEW YORK, NY - MAY 28: Justin Verlander #35 of the Houston Astros reacts in the seventh inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on May 28, 2018 in the Bronx borough of New York City.MLB players across the league are wearing special uniforms to commemorate Memorial Day. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - MAY 28: Justin Verlander #35 of the Houston Astros reacts in the seventh inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on May 28, 2018 in the Bronx borough of New York City.MLB players across the league are wearing special uniforms to commemorate Memorial Day. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /
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NEW YORK, NY – MAY 28: Justin Verlander #35 and Brian McCann #16 of the Houston Astros talk as a play is reviewed in the second inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on May 28, 2018 in the Bronx borough of New York City.MLB players across the league are wearing special uniforms to commemorate Memorial Day. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY – MAY 28: Justin Verlander #35 and Brian McCann #16 of the Houston Astros talk as a play is reviewed in the second inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on May 28, 2018 in the Bronx borough of New York City.MLB players across the league are wearing special uniforms to commemorate Memorial Day. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /

1. Justin Verlander

Astros fans reading this should take a deep breath. Justin Verlander is unquestionably an ace. His performance to date isn’t a sham. It’s a quality of a pitcher having some of the best stuff in the game. Even so, he’s not going to pitch this well all season.

Verlander has already amassed a WAR of 3.4 on the young season. That’s what happens when you have a record of 7-2 with an ERA of just 1.11. Any superlative you want to apply to Verlander’s season to date is perfectly acceptable.

With all that being said, expecting Verlander to enjoy his best career as a professional at the age of 35 is pretty silly. His career ERA of 3.39 is three times his number on the season. Statistically speaking, Verlander’s 2018 season is an outlier compared to his career totals.

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None of that means Verlander is going to turn into a AAA pitcher the rest of the way. He’s very likely going to finish the year with insanely good numbers. They just aren’t going to be quite as insane as what he’s put up to date. Look for his ERA to rise to somewhere in the low 2’s by the time October arrives. That just means Verlander will regress from white-hot to red-hot in time for the playoffs.

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