U.S. Open 2018 preview: Predictions, picks and upsets

The next five

Here’s a look at the next five players in the world rankings and their chances at winning the 2018 U.S. Open.

6. Rory McIlroy

As it goes with Rory McIlroy, 2018 has been quite a crazy year for the Irishman. He began his year playing great golf on the European Tour with a tie for third in Abu Dhabi and a solo second at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic. He came to the States for Pebble Beach and promptly missed the cut before coming back with a top 20 at the Genesis Open. But he followed that up with a T-59 at The Honda Classic and then missed the cut at the Valspar Championship. But he once again bounced back by winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill with an electric final-round performance. He didn’t play overly well at the Match Play but had a strong chance to complete the career Grand Slam at Augusta with three strong rounds to start, including a seven-under 65 on Saturday. A 74 on Sunday derailed those plans but he hasn’t let it get to him much, finishing 16th or better in three of his last four outings, including a solo second at the BMW PGA Championship across the pond and a tie for eighth at the Memorial. But there was also a missed cut at The Players in there as well so it’s always difficult to know which Rory McIlroy we’re going to see any given week.

7. Rickie Fowler

At some point, you have to believe Rickie Fowler is going to win a major championship, right? Right? He keeps coming so close, including a second-place finish at The Masters a couple of months ago, that it just feels like it’s going to happen soon. Then again, we’ve been saying that for a few years now. He had his first top five in a major championship in 2011 and has had seven such finishes since then, including a tie for fifth at last year’s U.S. Open at Erin Hills. His most recent finish was a tie for eighth at the Memorial but he will be riding high at Shinnecock Hills after his recent engagement. An engagement and a U.S. Open win would make for a pretty nice story, wouldn’t it?

8. Jason Day

Former world number one Jason Day didn’t look spectacular in his most recent outing at the Memorial but he’s been playing solid golf this season. He won at the Wells Fargo Championship just over a month ago and followed that up with a solid performance at TPC Sawgrass, finishing tied for fifth at The Players Championship. As for his history at the U.S. Open, it’s quite strong. He did miss the cut last year at Erin Hills but in the six years prior, he finished in the top 10 five times, including two runner-up finishes. He’s a major championship winner and could easily add to that total this week.

9. Brooks Koepka

It’s hard to win back-to-back U.S. Open titles. In fact, in the 117-year history of this tournament, only six players have ever done so. To make that more clear, the fifth one happened when Ben Hogan won his second consecutive U.S. Open in 1951. The last time? Almost three decades ago when Curtis Strange won in 1988 and 1989. So that’s the history that defending champion Brooks Koepka has working against him. His performance last year at Erin Hills was absolutely brilliant. Sure, it wasn’t the most difficult U.S. Open in history as a record 31 players finished under par but that’s not quite the point. Koepka still shot 16-under for the week, matching the record set by Rory McIlroy for the lowest score in relation to par in tournament history. He missed a few months, including The Masters, this season with a wrist injury and is looking like he’s getting his game back. He finished at 17-under, three strokes behind Justin Rose, to finish solo second at the Fort Worth Invitational last month and got a warmup in at the FedEx St. Jude Classic this past week, finishing tied for 30th. The odds are stacked against him but he’s got the talent to win anywhere at any time.

10. Hideki Matsuyama

You know how people keep waiting for guys like Rickie Fowler to win the big one? Hideki Matsuyama is on that same type of list. He’s moving in the wrong direction in the world rankings, having dropped from fifth to 10th since the year began but that certainly doesn’t mean he doesn’t have a chance at Shinnecock Hills. I mean, it’s still the top 10 and he proved last year that he can compete at the U.S. Open and at major championships in general. He hasn’t finished lower than 19th in the last six majors and that includes a tie for second at Erin Hills a season ago. He’s also dealt with a wrist issue this season but it looks like things are coming together just in time.