Fansided

Breaking down the three true outcomes of the Manny Machado drama

By Joshua Sadlock

TORONTO, ON - JUNE 09: Baltimore Orioles Shortstop Manny Machado (13) during the MLB game between the Baltimore Orioles and the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON., Canada June 9, 2018. (Photo by Jeff Chevrier/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON - JUNE 09: Baltimore Orioles Shortstop Manny Machado (13) during the MLB game between the Baltimore Orioles and the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON., Canada June 9, 2018. (Photo by Jeff Chevrier/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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BALTIMORE, MD – JULY 09: Manny Machado #13 of the Baltimore Orioles heads to the dugout in between innings during a game against the New York Yankees at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on July 9, 2018 in Baltimore, Maryland. The Orioles won 5-4. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
BALTIMORE, MD – JULY 09: Manny Machado #13 of the Baltimore Orioles heads to the dugout in between innings during a game against the New York Yankees at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on July 9, 2018 in Baltimore, Maryland. The Orioles won 5-4. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images) /

2. Walk: The Orioles do nothing

It would not be the worst thing in the world if the Orioles held onto Manny Machado until the end of the season and collected draft-pick compensation if he signs elsewhere. In this scenario, the Orioles would wind up with a pick at the end of the first round. That would be worth more than any of the prospects the Tigers got back last summer when they traded J.D. Martinez.

Orioles blog, Camden Depot, laid out a pretty convincing case for just holding Machado until the end of the year and letting him walk:

"If the Orioles would hold onto Machado and let him walk at the end of the year, they would be expected to pick somewhere between 26 and 35 in next year’s draft when another club signs Machado.  Minus the 7 MM left to him and you have a 7-10 MM value, which is more than getting a fringe top 10 organizational prospect.  Additionally, this avenue would enable the next General Manager of the Orioles to better dictate how to appropriate resources as opposed to relying on the current decision makers deciding what is the best way for their allocation. It could very well be that the offers on the table for Machado are underwhelming and could potentially be so underwhelming that the Orioles might be better off keeping him on the team and letting him walking, pulling back only the value of a compensation draft pick."

All of this is true. Trading the face of the franchise for fringe prospects is a recipe for disaster. The Orioles have a very fluid front-office situation. If the offers aren’t great for Machado — and really, any offer that does not include at least one top-100 prospect is not worth considering — then the safest route is to wait for a draft pick. That being said, Machado can be held, but the other trade chips currently in the Orioles possession have to be moved at all costs.

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