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The Open Championship 2018: Predictions, picks and upsets

By Luke Norris

CARNOUSTIE, SCOTLAND - APRIL 24: EDITORS NOTE GRADUATED COLOUR FILTER USED ON THE CAMERA; The Claret Jug, the Open Championship trophy as the sun rises beside the sixth green during the media day for the 147th Open Championship on the Championship Course at the Carnoustie Golf Links on April 24, 2018 in Carnoustie, Scotland. (Photo by David Cannon/R&A/R&A via Getty Images)
CARNOUSTIE, SCOTLAND - APRIL 24: EDITORS NOTE GRADUATED COLOUR FILTER USED ON THE CAMERA; The Claret Jug, the Open Championship trophy as the sun rises beside the sixth green during the media day for the 147th Open Championship on the Championship Course at the Carnoustie Golf Links on April 24, 2018 in Carnoustie, Scotland. (Photo by David Cannon/R&A/R&A via Getty Images) /
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A view looking towards the clubhouse on the 18th hole during a practice session at The 147th Open golf Championship at Carnoustie, Scotland on July 16, 2018. (Photo by ANDY BUCHANAN / AFP) (Photo credit should read ANDY BUCHANAN/AFP/Getty Images)
A view looking towards the clubhouse on the 18th hole during a practice session at The 147th Open golf Championship at Carnoustie, Scotland on July 16, 2018. (Photo by ANDY BUCHANAN / AFP) (Photo credit should read ANDY BUCHANAN/AFP/Getty Images) /

A quick look at Carnoustie

The point of the intro is that anything can and will happen at Carnoustie. Whomever comes out on top on Sunday afternoon has to stay focused for the full 72 holes. Seriously, ask guys like Van De Velde and Sergio. The 18th hole is one of the most difficult closing holes in the world and is likely to be a major factor this week. But that’s certainly not the only difficult hole on the golf course. To put it into terms that us weekend warriors can comprehend, it’s just really hard.

In the last 50 years, the winner of The Open finished the week over par just four times. Two of those have come at Carnoustie. The 1999 Open Championship is widely considered one of the most difficult of the 146 playings of this championship as 6-over par was good enough to get into that playoff. Not one player finished any round under par for the tournament. Yeah, it’s really hard. Want another indication of how hard this golf course is? As a 19-year-old, Sergio Garcia, who a month later would battle Tiger Woods down the stretch at the PGA Championship and become a household name, shot 89-83 in that 1999 Open and cried after. Yeah, Carnoustie is really hard.

The talk this week is going to be how fast Carnoustie is going to play. Scotland has had a big rain problem this summer and the course is extremely dry. The fairways are essentially brown and the ball is just going to keep going and going and going. Want an indication of how the ball is moving? Brandt Snedeker, who is tied for 135th on the PGA Tour averaging 291.3 yards off the tee, hit a 427-yard drive at the 18th in a practice round. Padraig Harrington, now 46, hit one 457 yards.

Yeah, Carnoustie is playing a little hot. It will be very interesting to see the tee shot selections from the 156 players in the field. Hitting driver can take a lot of the bunkers out of play but with the fairways not holding, players may opt for shorter clubs to keep the ball in play. Or perhaps they’ll just whip out the big stick and take their chances at the lies they’ll get closer to the greens. As for the greens themselves, Tiger Woods says they aren’t nearly as fast as the fairways but I’m sure that the R&A will be sure that the putting surfaces aren’t easy.

Here’s a quick breakdown of the 7,421-yard, par-71 layout at Carnoustie.

  1. Cup-406 yards-Par 4
  2. Gulley-463 yards-Par 4
  3. Jockie’s Burn-358 yards-Par 4
  4. Hillocks-412 yards-Par 4
  5. Brae-415 yards-Par 4
  6. Hogan’s Alley-578 yards-Par 5
  7. Plantation-410 yards-Par 4
  8. Short-183 yards-Par 3
  9. Railway-478 yards-Par 4
  10. South America-466 yards-Par 4
  11. John Philp-383 yards-Par 4
  12. Southward Ho-499 yards-Par 4
  13. Whins-176 yards-Par 3
  14. Spectacles-514 yards-Par 5
  15. Lucky Slap-472 yards-Par 4
  16. Barry Burn-248 yards-Par 3
  17. Island-461 yards-Par 4
  18. Home-499 yards-Par 4

This isn’t going to be target golf and that brings a lot of players into the mix. So let’s get rolling by taking a look at the top 10 players in the world and five others who could give us a good story at The Open this week.

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