The Open Championship 2018: Predictions, picks and upsets

Here’s a look at the next five players in the world rankings and their chances at winning the 2018 edition of The Open Championship.

6. Jordan Spieth

We begin the second five in the top 10 in the world rankings with defending champion at The Open, Jordan Spieth, who secured the third major championship of his young career by going wire-to-wire at Royal Birkdale, depriving Matt Kuchar of that elusive major by besting the veteran by three strokes, shooting 65-69-65-69 in a brilliant performance. However, it’s been a mixed bag for Spieth in the last year, a year in which he’s played 24 events and gone winless. If he doesn’t win this week, this would be the first time in more than three years that Spieth will not be the defending champion at an event. It’s not that he’s played poorly the entire year but we’re just used to seeing him win. He’s had 10 top-10 finishes in that span, including a couple of runner-ups and a solo third at Augusta but in the six tournaments since The Masters, he missed cuts at the Memorial and the U.S. Open and hasn’t finished higher than a tie for 21st, that coming at the Byron Nelson. But he does now how to play this kind of golf. With the win last year and a tie for fourth in 2015 when he finished just one stroke out of the playoff that was eventually won by Zach Johnson, he can compete here. But his putting has been as inconsistent as it’s ever been and he’s going to need that to come back this week to have a chance.

7. Rickie Fowler

Rickie, Rickie, Rickie … when is it going to be your turn? Every major championship that comes around, the talk begins again. When is Rickie Fowler finally going to win the big one? Arguably the best player in the world right now without a major, Fowler comes to Carnoustie with yet another chance to get that monkey off his back and it just seems so close, doesn’t it? After winning the Hero World Challenge to close 2017, he tied for fourth at the Tournament of Champions but then missed a couple of cuts on his way to Augusta but came back strong with a brilliant performance, once again knocking on the door but coming up just short, finishing one back of Patrick Reed, his eighth top-five finish in a major. While struggling a bit early at a tough Shinnecock Hills course, Fowler closed beautifully with a 65 and warmed up for The Open this past week with a solid tie for sixth at the Scottish Open. We know he’s got the game to win. We just have to keep waiting for that one perfect week where everything is in line.

8. Rory McIlroy

Okay, Mr. McIlroy, you were my official pick to win both The Masters and the U.S. Open and that final-round 74 at Augusta and that missed cut at Shinnecock Hills got me a little peeved but I’m still hoping that major magic returns soon. Still with one of the prettiest swings in the game, Rory has gone nearly four years without winning a major championship — his last coming at the 2014 PGA Championship — but it’s really just all or nothing in these big tournaments. Since that win at Valhalla, McIlroy has teed it up at 13 majors. He’s missed the cut four times but has finished inside the top 10 seven times, including four top-five finishes. However, the major at which he’s been most consistent in the past four years is The Open Championship. He beat Rickie Fowler and Sergio Garcia by two in 2014 at Royal Liverpool, had to miss the 2015 Open at St. Andrews due to an ankle injury, tied for fifth at Royal Troon in 2016 and tied for fourth a year ago at Royal Birkdale. So logic says that he should be right there on Sunday. But major win number five won’t come easy if he can’t stay consistent and that’s been a recent problem.

9. Jason Day

After going winless for nearly two years following his victory at The Players Championship in 2016, Jason Day finally got back in the winner’s circle at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines, followed it up with a runner-up finish two weeks later at Pebble Beach, won the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow in May, scored a top-five at The Players and is looking more and more like the world number one that we got used to watching a few years back. Okay, he missed the cut at the U.S. Open but so did a lot of the top players in the world. I really think the issue there was his ball flight and that could come into play again this week if the wind starts whipping around. But the reason he’s been in contention and winning tournaments again has been his putting, ranking number one on the PGA Tour in strokes gained on the green and seventh in one-putt percentage. If he can keep his ball under control, which could be tough given the shape Carnoustie is in, and get the ball to the green in a timely fashion, he’s going to be trouble.

10. Tommy Fleetwood

One of the most popular picks this week is going to be Tommy Fleetwood, and for good reason. While not playing in Open Championship conditions, the 27-year-old Englishman just happens to hold the course record at Carnoustie, shooting a 9-under 63 (the course was playing as a par-72) last year at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. After going out in 3-under, he made a par at the 10th and then made birdie at six of the final eight holes, including five consecutive from the 11th through the 15th and one at the last. So there’s that. Oh yeah, let’s not forget about that other recent 63…you know, that one in the final round of the U.S. Open that nearly won him his first major championship. He could have packed it in after shooting a 78 on Saturday but he came back strong on Sunday, posted a number and had to watch as Brooks Koepka had just enough to beat him by one. This guy can play some golf and can go low at any time at any golf course, even somewhere like Carnoustie. Do not be surprised to see this guy holding the Claret Jug on Sunday afternoon.