Life after Manny Machado doesn’t have to be bleak for Orioles
It’s all but over, and now the Baltimore Orioles must move on from the Manny Machado Era and into an aggressive rebuilding phase.
Don’t cry because it’s over. Smile because it happened. With a trade all but completed, that’s the best advice for Baltimore Orioles fans mourning the loss of superstar Manny Machado. The most talented player in franchise history has likely played his final game as an Oriole, and a deal should be done before the second half kicks off.
Everyone knew this was coming, but now what?
The Orioles blew their chance to win a World Series with the supremely talented Machado and a solid core of surrounding players. No progress was ever made on locking him up to an extension, ownership pinched pennies with the starting rotation but plowed $161 million into Chris Davis, all the while neglecting the farm system and international market. It leaves a bleak future for the O’s.
After moving Machado, the Orioles must move quickly to sell off their remaining valuable assets.
All of them. Blow it up and rebuild.
That means All-Star closer Zach Britton will be gone. Same goes for center fielder Adam Jones, reliever Brad Brach and utility infielder/platoon bat Danny Valencia. The Orioles will probably stop there, preferring to hold onto controllable starters Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy, as well as promising reliever Mychal Givens.
Despite much worry and consternation from the fanbase, the Orioles should actually make out with a solid return for Machado. Luckily, a bidding war developed, driving the price up to the point where the team will bring back at least one top-100 prospect, likely a starting pitcher with high upside. If there’s one thing the Orioles need, it is a starting pitcher to lift their farm system. The two most likely prospects to headline a deal are Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Yadier Alvarez or Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Adonis Medina. Neither is his organization’s number-one overall prospect, but still offers considerable upside.
Alvarez or Medina would represent a considerable leap in talent over the crop of pitchers currently in the Orioles system, where injury-prone Hunter Harvey leads a thin group. Hopefully a Machado trade would net another fringe top-ten prospect and a lottery ticket from the lower levels. Of the remaining chips on the roster, Britton represents the best chance to land a valuable prospect. The Orioles had a deal in place last year that would have brought a much better return, but the closer has looked good since returning from his Achilles injury and still has plenty of trade value. Jones is in the midst of another steady campaign, and could land the Orioles a prospect inside an organization’s top ten. Brach and Valencia will not bring much, so Baltimore needs to be looking at younger prospects with as much upside as possible.
It has been painful to watch the Orioles fall apart in Machado’s final season — even more painful considering he is having the best year of his career. Perhaps there was no way to avoid this collapse. Over the course of their five-year run of success from 2012 to 2016, the Orioles defied the odds at every step of the way. They were able to capitalize perfectly on a few down years for the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, even without a single elite starting pitcher.
For the Orioles, thinking that a similar window can be opened right away with the fruits of this deadline’s moves would be foolish. A multi-year rebuild must come next. This may be difficult for the Angelos family to accept, but the Orioles must strip the roster down to the studs and start over. They aren’t catching the Yankees and Red Sox with Trey Mancini, Jonathan Schoop and Chance Sisco. Gausman and Bundy could very well be free agents by the time this team is ready to win again. If the Orioles try to cobble a winner together quickly, they will get eaten alive. They’re simply too far gone for a quick fix.
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A breather is allowed after the trade deadline, but the Orioles must continue thinking about their future. It would be hasty to trade Schoop, Givens, Bundy and Guasman this July, but nothing should be off the table come December. By that point, the team will likely have a new general manager and front office, and hopefully one that is given the freedom to aggressively pursue top talent coming out of Latin America. If the ownership group can take a more hands-off approach and accept a string of 100-loss seasons, the franchise could see its fortunes turn quickly like those of the Houston Astros, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves and Phillies.
Another 14-year drought can be avoided, but only with a more focused and disciplined plan, starting from the top down.