NBA post-free agency power rankings

2. Houston Rockets

The Rockets have earned the benefit of the doubt.

Despite losing Trevor Ariza to Phoenix and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute back to the Clippers, the Rockets have in recent history done so well replacing departed talent that I can’t help but assume they’ll be fine. Part of that optimism comes as a result of the Western Conference failing to produce another challenger to the Warriors’ throne, and no East team yet ready to vault to that level.

But their ceiling has surely fallen in.

Houston’s vaunted switching defense posed the most fearsome challenge to the Warriors’ dynasty we’ve seen. Though Golden State’s problems were seemingly psychological for the most part, results rule — the Rockets came within minutes of a Finals appearance. They did so because they were able to throw Ariza, Mbah a Moute, Chris Paul, P.J. Tucker or Clint Capela at any opposing defensive player and move well enough off the ball to reduce a defensive possession to a single mano a mano stop.

They lost two of their five best two-way players, both of whom played meaningful roles in the playoffs. Their replacements appear to be Michael Carter-Williams, James Ennis and (maybe) Carmelo Anthony. Again, I think Daryl Morey and Mike D’Antoni can make it work, and it’s rare to see a championship team get younger without trading a star, but whoa.

Unless something unexpected happens (the youngsters rise, Anthony is rejuvenated, Capela gets even better), last year might have been the Rockets’ only chance to slay the Warriors. Once they get Capela’s contract situation figured out, the team might be forced, like the rest of the league, to wait Golden State out. Long live the 2018 Western Conference Finals.