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Tennessee season preview: Best and worst-case scenario

By Rucker Haringey

KNOXVILLE, TN - APRIL 21: Tennessee Volunteers head coach Jeremy Pruitt answers questions from the media after the Tennessee spring game on April 21, 2018, at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, TN. (Photo by Bryan Lynn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
KNOXVILLE, TN - APRIL 21: Tennessee Volunteers head coach Jeremy Pruitt answers questions from the media after the Tennessee spring game on April 21, 2018, at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, TN. (Photo by Bryan Lynn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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Jeremy Pruitt is used to competing for national championships, but that won’t happen for Tennessee in 2018. Six wins would be a coup for the Vols.

The Butch Jones era is over in Knoxville, but that doesn’t mean hope springs eternal for Tennessee football. Instead, fans on Rocky Top are understandably taking a wait and see attitude when it comes to new coach Jeremy Pruitt. He wants to bring a physical, smash-mouth style of football back to the Volunteer state, but he may not get a lot accomplished in his inaugural season.

After all, we’re talking about a Volunteers team that failed to win a single SEC game during the 2017 campaign. 4-8 isn’t a record that’s going to get any Tennessee fans excited. There’s a reason Jones is no longer the head coach in Knoxville.

Unfortunately, a fair amount of talent also left the Tennessee program in the offseason. John Kelly, Rashaan Gaulden and Reginald ‘Kahlil’ McKenzie all took their talents to the NFL. The losses of Gaulden and McKenzie will really hamper a Volunteer defense that was already thin on talent. Kelly’s departure means Pruitt will need to find a go-to tailback to base his offense around.

That doesn’t mean this roster is entirely bereft of talent. If he’s focused and healthy, Trey Smith can be one of the best offensive lineman in the nation. Nigel Warrior and Todd Kelly both return to give Tennessee one of the best safety duos in the SEC. There’s still significant talent for Pruitt to work with, there just isn’t enough of it to go around.

In particular, there are serious questions about who will lead this offense from under center in 2018. Jarrett Guarantano played nine games of pretty uninspiring football last season. He’s got a lot of work to do if he wants to hold off transfer Keller Chryst for the starting job. Chryst doesn’t have a ton of experience in Pruitt’s system, but there’s a reason the new coach went after the Stanford quarterback hard when he announced he was leaving the Cardinal. Expect him to get every opportunity to start this season for the Vols.

The real challenge facing Pruitt this season is a murderous schedule. There are only three games where the Volunteers will likely be considered strong favorites. Home dates against East Tennessee State, UTEP and Charlotte are must-wins if Pruitt wants to experience any measure of success in his first season in charge. Here’s how things are most likely to shake out.

Tennessee schedule

  • West Virginia – L
  • ETSU – W
  • UTEP – W
  • Florida – L
  • at Georgia – L
  • at Auburn – L
  • Alabama – L
  • at South Carolina – L
  • Charlotte – W
  • Kentucky – W
  • Missouri – L
  • at Vanderbilt – W

Best-case scenario: Tennessee can bank three home wins in the non-conference schedule and then find a way to snatch three other wins on the schedule. That would allow Pruitt to go to a bowl game. Accomplishing that would be huge for his program’s momentum on the recruiting trail and getting his players more practice time under his system. Unfortunately, that’s a pretty unlikely result. Five wins look like the median outcome here.

Worst-case scenario: Really grim. If Pruitt can’t get this team to buy into his tough love mentality, things could get really ugly. The offense may struggle to score points no matter who is under center. The defense has some talent at the back, but the corners are serious question marks. The Volunteer defense could give up more than their fair share of big plays.

If that happens, the only safe wins on the schedule are home games against ETSU and Charlotte. 2-10 isn’t on the table unless an utter disaster occurs, but 3-9 is squarely in the realm of possibility. If Tennessee only wins three games this season, some fans will already be calling for Pruitt’s dismissal.

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Brighter days may be ahead for Tennessee football, but don’t expect the Vols to make big strides this year in terms of their record on the field. Pruitt knows he inherited a tough situation and he’ll worry more about installing his culture than anything else in 2018.