Hard Knocks with the Cleveland Browns and your fantasy football draft
In total, 26 players from the last seven seasons fall into the three categories mentioned previously. Chad Johnson was cut by the Dolphins for off-field issues in 2012 but everyone else spent the season with the team after being featured on Hard Knocks. These are the results shown by the 25 players and how they broke down in terms of Position Rank Variance (position rank in the draft vs. position rank based on season results):
Collective Results based on Position Variance:
- Four of seven teams produced negative averages in Position Rank Variance:
- 2017 Bucs: -18.75
- 2016 Rams: +1.33
- 2015 Texans: -11.75
- 2014 Falcons: -2.25
- 2013 Bengals: +4.25
- 2012 Dolphins: +3
- 2010 Jets: -1.4
- Three players dramatically outperformed their average draft position (LT in 2010, Andy Dalton in 2013, Kenny Britt in 2016)
- Nine players dramatically underperformed compared to their draft positions
Results based on the three storylines mentioned previously:
- The Franchise Guy (13 players) – Collective average: -7.69
- 8 players produced negative results, 4 outperformed, and 1 player broke even
- The Motivated Veteran (10 players) – Collective average: -0.91
- 4 players produced negative results, 6 players outperformed
- Rookie Top Draft Pick (2 players) – Collective average: +8
- Gio Bernard outperformed and Ryan Tannehill had a decent season for a player who went undrafted in most fantasy leagues
The most reliable players to pick based on Hard Knocks history are veteran running backs playing on a new team, hoping to prove they still has some tread left on the tires and veteran wide receivers working to redefine their careers.
- Ladanian Tomlinson (RB, Jets, 2010) – drafted as 37th running back, finished 17th
- Reggie Bush (RB, Dolphins, 2012) – drafted as 23rd running back, finished 14th
- Steven Jackson (RB, Falcons, 2014) – drafted as 31st running back, finished 22nd
- Kenny Britt (WR, Rams, 2016) – not drafted, finished 27th among wide receivers
- Santonio Holmes (WR, Jets, 2010) – drafted as 34th wide receiver, finished 33rd
Next: Best NFL player from each state
How to approach the 2018 Browns:
The Browns don’t have a true franchise player returning from last season. That might have something to do with their 0-16 record.
- Motivated Veterans (#2): Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry and possibly Dez Bryant if he’s featured on the final episode
- Top Rookie (#3): Baker Mayfield
If Jarvis Landry’s one-handed catches weren’t enough, there’s some history that points to a solid fantasy season from the veteran wide out in his first season in Cleveland. Tyrod Taylor is likely to outperform in his first season with a new team. And Baker Mayfield, who is unlikely to start at least early, might be better than an undrafted rookie in terms of fantasy points by the end of the season.
Or not. Fantasy football is such a crapshoot no matter what.