NBA Season Preview 2018-19: Every team’s biggest question

The Utah Jazz: How real was the second half of last season?

Utah hit rock bottom last January on a Monday night in Atlanta, suffering a 14-point loss to the punchless Hawks to sink to 19-28 on the year; the loss of Gordon Hayward, it appeared, had unraveled the foundation the team had spent years developing. Of course, the Jazz wouldn’t lose another game until after the All-Star break and went on to win 29 of their final 35 games to slide into the playoffs, where they discarded the Thunder in six games. Utah posted a plus-12 net rating over that stretch, by far the best mark in the NBA, and led the league in defense by a wide margin (incidentally, they lost their only other game against Atlanta during that time as well).

The Jazz’ blistering run provides reason for optimism for the upcoming season, but it also makes them difficult to assess. A double-digit net rating is likely to regress even if they boast the best defense in the NBA (a distinct possibility), and even during its improbable run, Utah scored at an average rate. Improvement is not always linear, and assuming the entire roster will recapture the groove it found last year ignores some of the basic realities of the NBA.

And yet, the final 35 games of the season may be the most indicative sample of who the Jazz really were last year. Rudy Gobert only played 56 games, most of which came down the stretch of the season. Jae Crowder didn’t join the team until February and was a key part of Utah’s most devastating small lineups. Shedding the weight of Rodney Hood and Joe Johnson stabilized the entire rotation in the second half of the season, and Utah will return nearly all of its key players, plus Thabo Sefolosha. The Jazz have significant margin for improvement, both individually and collectively.

Even Donovan Mitchell, who made major strides over the course of the season, still has massive room for growth. He shot just 29 percent on pull-up threes as a rookie, a low mark for a lead guard, and graded out around league average as a pick-and-roll ball-handler. Mitchell has real point guard skills, even if he nominally played shooting guard next to Ricky Rubio most of last season, and should get to play that role more often when Rubio sits.

If it clicks at the right time, Utah is a potential Conference Finals team. Coaching, continuity and night-to-night execution ensure a high floor in the regular season, and another leap from Mitchell would meaningfully raise the Jazz’ ceiling in the playoffs.