Real Madrid’s supremacy sign of shifting Champions League landscape

Real Madrid may struggle to make it four Champions Leagues in a row this season, but the group of clubs that could challenge is small.

Surely Real Madrid can’t win it for a fourth year in a row, can they? That they’ve won the Champions League three years in succession already is unprecedented, but a fourth time would be unthinkable, particularly given the change that has occurred at the Santiago Bernabeu over the summer.

Indeed, with Zinedine Zidane and Cristiano Ronaldo no longer at Real Madrid, the Champions League feels that much more open this season. In truth, it’s felt open for quite some time. Real Madrid might have won three European titles in a row, four in five years, but their dominance hasn’t been so complete.

But perhaps this sense of openness is an illusion. In reality, the Champions League has never been more of a closed shop. There may not be obvious frontrunners, but how many teams can potentially win the competition this season? Only a select few can aim to go all the way, with only five different clubs making the final over the past five years — Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, Juventus, Liverpool and Real Madrid.

Of those five, Liverpool may be an exception, with Jurgen Klopp’s side making an unexpected run to the final last season. The Anfield outfit might have won five European Cups over their long and storied history, but they are still some way off the elite at present. They will find it tough to replicate last season’s success this time around.

Atletico Madrid, Barcelona and Real Madrid are capable of making a deep run in the tournament, with Juventus bringing in Ronaldo as a one-man Champions League difference-maker. Beyond these five, though, the odds on potential Champions League winners start to lengthen. The elite group is getting smaller.

Even Bayern Munich, one of the biggest clubs in the world, have been cut adrift from the elite, with the Bavarians not making a Champions League final since they last won it in 2013. Not even Pep Guardiola could take them back to the top of the European game. The same could be said of Manchester United, another superclub who are now considered a second-tier team.

Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain may claim to have joined the European elite in the place of teams like Bayern Munich and Manchester United, with both clubs targeting Champions League supremacy as the end game of their respective grand projects. City in particular look to making the breakthrough, but have still only ever made the semifinals of the Champions League once.

Over the past 10 years, only five different clubs (Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Chelsea, Inter Milan and Real Madrid) have won the Champions League. Over the past five years, only two different clubs  have been crowned European champions (Barcelona and Real Madrid). In contrast, over 10 years between 1991 and 2001 there were nine different champions.

This is reflective of the changing landscape of European soccer as a whole. The best want to break off from the rest. The European Club Association (ECA) has been used by the elite to lobby UEFA for self-protection, resulting in the new Champions League format which ensures qualification for four teams from each of Europe’s top four leagues.

That format, which is in play for the first time this season, has made it harder for teams from smaller countries, like Scotland, to qualify for the Champions League group stages. Celtic, for instance, faced three rounds of qualifying last season. This season, they faced four. Meanwhile, the elite have never been more secure in their place at the top table.

The feeling is that this season’s new format edges the sport closer to some sort of European super league. UEFA’s announcement of a new, third continental competition last week adds more weight to this argument, with a three-tier system soon to be implemented. Some speculate the top tier could be a closed circuit, an invitation only event exclusively for the biggest and best clubs.

So while this season’s Champions League might give the impression of being open, the bigger picture tells a rather different story. European soccer might be beyond the point of no return. UEFA must bend to the demands of its biggest, most reputable clubs because in truth, UEFA needs the likes of Barcelona and Real Madrid more than they need it. There may be more than just one team in the Champions League running this season, but all things considered that doesn’t count for much.