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The Whiteboard: Wait, is Kyle Kuzma overrated or underrated?

By Ti Windisch

INDIANAPOLIS, IN - MARCH 19: Kyle Kuzma #0 of the Los Angeles Lakers looks on against the Indiana Pacers during a game at Bankers Life Fieldhouse on March 19, 2018 in Indianapolis, Indiana. The Pacers won 110-100. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using the photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Kyle Kuzma
INDIANAPOLIS, IN - MARCH 19: Kyle Kuzma #0 of the Los Angeles Lakers looks on against the Indiana Pacers during a game at Bankers Life Fieldhouse on March 19, 2018 in Indianapolis, Indiana. The Pacers won 110-100. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using the photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Kyle Kuzma /
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Kyle Kuzma has surpassed expectations as a late first round draft pick, but now the NBA world seems unsure if he is overrated or underrated.

Despite it being one of the lower picks in the first round, the 27th overall pick has been a goldmine for NBA teams over the last several NBA Drafts. Since 2013, the following players have been picked 27th: Rudy Gobert, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Larry Nance Jr., Pascal Siakam, and Kyle Kuzma.

There are a few interesting and somewhat divisive players in that group, but Kuzma especially has been a lightning rod for conversation this summer. As an outspoken member of the Los Angeles Lakers, and now a teammate of LeBron James, it makes sense why Kuzma would come up in conversation.

What makes less sense is how quickly he can go from being called overrated to underrated, or vice versa. A tweet will go out saying that Kuzma is one of the best few players in his draft class, only for other Twitter users to come out of the woodwork saying how he shouldn’t be valued so highly. Of course it being Twitter there are often a lot of less nice words in there too.

The Kuzma debate is becoming more common because it rehashes on an old battle line: eye test NBA people against the analytical folks. Kuzma on the surface is a big-time contributor who can score and sort-of handle the ball. After all, he did average 16.1 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 1.8 assists per game as a rookie.

On the other hand, the Lakers’ defense was worse when Kuzma was on the floor, as per stats.NBA.com. Kuzma allowed players within six feet of the basket to shoot more than 60 percent, putting him behind players like Lonzo Ball, Channing Frye and Brook Lopez when it comes to defending the basket. (Although in Kuzma’s defense they did shoot slightly worse than they normally would’ve against him.)

Additionally, Cleaning the Glass’ offensive metrics indicate Kuzma wasn’t a great or even an especially good offensive player, merely a competent one, ranking in the high 50 and low 60 percentile range in stats like effective field goal percentage and three-point percentage for his position.

Does all of that mean Kuzma is a draft bust hiding in plain sight? Of course not! Kuzma was just a rookie, even if he was an old one who recently turned 23, and there’s no reason to expect he can’t improve just like every other promising rookie. There’s also value in being able to score points in bulk–if every player could average more than 16 points per game, they would. It’s not so easy.

Kuzma’s rating as a player all depends on perspective, like most things do. If you look at Kuzma and see an inefficient chucker who will be a net negative, you’re underrating him. If you see a player who will make Donovan Mitchell and Jayson Tatum look like scrubs for the duration of their careers, you’re overrating him.

If you look at Kyle Kuzma and see a promising young forward with some issues he’ll need to improve on, you’re probably properly rating him. Especially if you factor in his sick Lonzo burns.

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