NFL lines, Week 3 2018: 5 best bets
Raiders: 0-2 (0-2 ATS). Dolphins: 2-0 (2-0 ATS). OAK at MIA, Pick: Miami -3. 2. player. 59.
Every season there are a couple surprise teams that start the season 2-0 or 3-0 which triggers a major overreaction. Last year, the Broncos, Ravens and Raiders all started 2-0 but none of the three made the playoffs and the Raiders and Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 respectively.
This year, the Dolphins are a prime candidate for the overrated, overreaction team after two weeks. They beat the Titans 27-20 in an injury-riddled, weather-delayed Week 1 game. Last week, the Jets’ rookie quarterback Sam Darnold looked like a rookie and the Dolphins took advantage to win 20-12 in New York.
That said, this pick isn’t about the Dolphins being a particularly good team. It’s about the Raiders being a BAD team, especially playing on the road traveling from the West Coast to East Coast for a 1:00 p.m. game. The coast to coast trip doesn’t matter as much for afternoon or night games but the 1:00 p.m. ET game is at 10:00 a.m. PT. Hope the Raiders have plenty of coffee.
Time zones aside, the Raiders have been absolutely dismal through two games so far, especially on defense. They rank 22nd in total defense (allowing 750 yards in two games) and 31st in rushing defense (allowed 308 rushing yards). The Dolphins’ running game ranks eighth in the league so far and features two solid running backs in Frank Gore and Kenyan Drake and one of the best running quarterbacks in the league in Ryan Tannehill. All three are averaging 4.0 yards/carry or better so far this season.
I see the Dolphins winning by a touchdown in a sloppy, low-scoring game.