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NFL betting guide, Week 5: Roll with Mahomes and the Ravens

By Rucker Haringey

DENVER, CO - OCTOBER 01: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates a touchdown against the Denver Broncos at Broncos Stadium at Mile High on October 1, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
DENVER, CO - OCTOBER 01: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates a touchdown against the Denver Broncos at Broncos Stadium at Mile High on October 1, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /
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DENVER, CO – OCTOBER 1: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates after his second-quarter rushing touchdown, the first of his NFL career, against the Denver Broncos at Broncos Stadium at Mile High on October 1, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)
DENVER, CO – OCTOBER 1: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates after his second-quarter rushing touchdown, the first of his NFL career, against the Denver Broncos at Broncos Stadium at Mile High on October 1, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images) /

3. Take the Chiefs -3 versus Jacksonville

At some point Mahomes is going to run up against a defense that he can’t handle. We can understand why Vegas thinks it will be the Jaguars. Jalen Ramsey and the group’s fearsome pass rush can make a lot of quarterbacks look bad.

It’s dangerous to underestimate Andy Reid though. He might be the best offensive mind in football at the moment. Giving him a quarterback like Mahomes and the myriad of talented skill position players he has at his disposal right now is almost unfair. We believe he can engineer at way to confound the Jaguars defense.

The real question about this game is whether or not the Jaguars can put up enough points. We don’t feel good about backing Blake Bortles versus Mahomes. The Kansas City defense has serious holes, but don’t expect Bortles to play like he did against New England. The Jaguars will score some points, but they can’t match the Chiefs in that department.

If you’re feeling really adventurous, tease this line to squeeze out some more value. There’s not a huge difference between 3 and 6.5 in this game. It’s at least possible that the Chiefs can win this one walking away. That’s not what we’re predicting, but we do believe Kansas City will do enough to cover.