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NBA Season Preview 2018-19: Are the Thunder a dark horse contender?

By Jerry Christodoulatos

OKLAHOMA CITY, OK - MARCH 30: Paul George #13 and Russell Westbrook #0 of the Oklahoma City Thunder react to a play during the game against the Denver Nuggets on March 30, 2018 at Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Layne Murdoch/NBAE via Getty Images)
OKLAHOMA CITY, OK - MARCH 30: Paul George #13 and Russell Westbrook #0 of the Oklahoma City Thunder react to a play during the game against the Denver Nuggets on March 30, 2018 at Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Layne Murdoch/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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After financially committing to their current core, are the Oklahoma City Thunder poised for contention or disappointment moving forward?

$80,970,284. That staggering figure represents the Oklahoma City Thunder’s projected luxury tax payment as their books currently stand. OKC saved a preposterous amount of money by parting ways with both Carmelo Anthony and Kyle Singler, but simply re-signing Paul George and Jerami Grant has catapulted this team into cap limbo for the foreseeable future. Though some cost-cutting moves could be on the horizon for OKC, this franchise can’t escape paying gargantuan price for the roster it has assembled.

Management’s decision to swallow hard and forge onward with this kind of tax bill is fascinating. On the one hand re-signing a star like Paul George seems like a no-brainer and a big victory, particularly for a team in a small market. And yet, on the other hand, bringing back George carries a variety of risks.

First off, the Thunder have committed championship level cash to a core that might not have an especially high upside. Last season, the Thunder won 48 games and played erratically throughout the year; on some nights they would stifle the best squads in the NBA and on others they looked completely incompetent against lottery teams. OKC’s disappointing flameout against the Jazz was especially disheartening, exposing many of the team’s deepest flaws. With severely limited financial maneuverability over the next few years, adding significant pieces will be exceedingly difficult for Sam Presti and the OKC front office. And moreover, Westbrook and George, the two stars on this roster, have troubling injury histories. Age and injury-related regression could be concerns for that pair in the near future.

Although the Thunder have knowingly consigned themselves to salary cap hell, they did not have many particularly palatable alternatives. With Russell Westbrook under contract at the supermax level, Oklahoma City’s maneuvers exhibit a desire to compete in the West as Westbrook’s prime years come to a close. But will this team be a true competitor or simply another iteration of the doomed pretender that fell apart last year? On the contender-pretender spectrum, I’m inclined to view them as more of a legit threat in the West than a pretender. Despite the myriad concerns mentioned above, this is an unmistakably talented roster. If the team can properly gel and develop a more balanced offense they can give anyone a serious scare.

At the very least, Oklahoma City should have a stellar defense. The Thunder finished ninth in defensive efficiency last season and have the talent to improve significantly this year. Carmelo is gone, so teams won’t have a glaring weakness to pick and roll into oblivion for extended stretches of game time. With so much athleticism at the forward spots between Paul George, Jerami Grant and Andre Roberson, this team will be a terror to attack. Having those types of lengthy and elite wing defenders is practically essential for any great defense, particularly against the league’s best teams. In addition, OKC has multiple guys with an innate ability to create turnovers and one of the sturdiest rim protectors in the NBA in Steven Adams. Those ingredients suggest that the Thunder will have a stifling defense this season.

Of course, there are some mitigating factors as well. The health of Andre Roberson comes to mind here. After returning from a patellar rupture, he may not be the same guy athletically. If he takes a step back on defense, he could become effectively unplayable, limiting the ceiling of this defense. Two more guys to watch are Russell Westbrook and Dennis Schroeder. Despite Westbrook’s incredible athleticism, he’s too inattentive on defense, losing guys off ball and gambling for steals too frequently. Schroeder has become a similarly spacey defender after flashing some promise early in his career. That lack of focus could hamstring a defense that ranked poorly in 3-point attempts allowed last year.

The offense will be the real issue for this team. Though the Thunder performed at about a top ten level on offense last year, something was off all season. Last playoffs we witnessed the Thunder offense devolve into an utter mockery as Rudy Gobert barricaded the paint and Westbrook chucked increasingly insane shots whenever he pleased. While a go-to action such as the Westbrook-Adams pick and roll is a devastatingly effective offensive tool, the Thunder have yet to demonstrate an ability to adapt when Westbrook can’t get to the rim at will. The alarming lack of long-range shooting on this roster has the potential to exacerbate that weakness.

The spacing could get really tight for this team. The Thunder are going to play numerous lineups that feature only one or two reliable long-range shooters. Beyond Paul George, I’m not sure we can consider anyone on the Thunder even a decent marksman from deep. Alex Abrines is a solid shooter, but his exceedingly poor defense could limit his role on this team. Although Carmelo didn’t knock down jumpers at a high rate last season, most teams at least respected the threat of his jumper. Now OKC will likely be starting either Jerami Grant or Patrick Patterson at the four. Grant’s shooting regressed last year and Patterson had a majorly disappointing year in almost every facet of the game.

Adding another ball handler in Dennis Schroeder should take some of the massive creation burden off of Westbrook’s shoulders. If Schroeder can find his niche on second units, perhaps the Thunder won’t crumble to pieces whenever Westbrook hits the bench. Closing games with the Westbrook-Schroeder duo could be tricky though. Teams will sag off of whichever guy is off the ball, impacting Oklahoma City’s already iffy floor spacing. Westbrook and George will have their offensive explosions throughout the year, but right now this team is lacking coherent offensive contingency plans. Elite offensive rebounding, propelled primarily by Adams, will help to conceal some of the Thunder’s weaknesses. But rebounding can only carry them so far.

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The Thunder are a clearly talented, but flawed team. Their defense has the potential to be one of the best in the league, while their offense will rely on sheer talent and the indomitable nature of Russell Westbrook to function. That seems like a recipe for a damn good team, despite all the flaws lurking just beneath the surface. The Thunder should compete for a top-four seed in the West. With good health they have a real chance to break the 50-win threshold and might even push for 55 with some luck.