NBA Season Preview 2018-19: The Toronto Raptors are going all in this season

With a new star player and a new head coach, the Raptors are looking to win now and push for the Finals.

In the wake of another LeBron induced nightmare last May, the Toronto Raptors appeared to have an existential crisis on their hands.  In their previous defeats to the Cavs, the Raptors kept their roster’s core intact. During the 2017 season they added complementary pieces in Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker, while in 2018 Toronto developed young talent on the roster and reformed its offense. While those strategies yielded fantastic regular season success, particularly last year, Toronto met the same demoralizing fate in the playoffs.

The front office, led by pragmatic GM Masai Ujiri, responded to Toronto’s latest humiliation with wholesale changes to the team’s core. The franchise fired Dwane Casey after a 59-win season and replaced him with longtime assistant Nick Nurse. Most significantly, Toronto flipped beloved star DeMar DeRozan, youngster Jakob Poeltl and a protected 2019 first-rounder for disgruntled Spurs superstar Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green. After five straight playoff appearances, the DeRozan-Lowry foundation (the serendipitous outcome of a doomed tank job!) is no more.

Management harbors no illusions about the many risks inherent in its move to acquire the enigmatic superstar. Kawhi’s expressed desire to play in Los Angeles and his questionable health after a prolonged injury saga are major concerns that will loom over this entire Raptors season. But with their eternal tormentor, LeBron James finally out of the East, the Raptors have unambiguously gone all in this season. They are attempting to raise their ceiling and make a firm push towards the Finals.

While Toronto will, of course, attempt to keep Leonard long-term, the franchise will brace for the likely reality that he exercises his player option and bolts for Los Angeles in July. The recent example of Paul George remaining in Oklahoma City, despite OKC’s disappointing 2018 season, provides a small glimmer of hope for Toronto. But George’s decision to re-sign with OKC is probably more the exception than the rule. Even if the Raptors have an incredible season and give the Celtics a run for their money in the East, Leonard could very well head to the Lakers or Clippers anyway. If the Raptors disappoint Leonard will surely leave, perhaps even by the trade deadline if the situation turns sour enough. Yet if Leonard reaffirms himself as a force on both ends of the floor, recapturing his 2017 form, it’s difficult to imagine the Raptors as anything other than a legit championship contender.

Toronto has the tools to be a monstrosity on both ends of the floor. The defense, in particular, could be one of the two or three best in the league. The Raptors ranked within the league’s top five in defensive efficiency last season and played at about a top ten level in both 2016 and 2017. During the playoffs though, Toronto’s defense has tended to fall apart. The Cavs consistently dismantled the Raptors with stretchy lineups featuring bigs like Kevin Love. And perhaps just as significantly, Toronto never really had enough reliable defensive talent on the wing to survive against the likes of elite players. Now the Raptors can unleash Kawhi, OG Anunoby and Danny Green on opposing wings. While guys like Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka may be in for some age-related regression on defense, they are both stout defenders at the very worst.

Last year Toronto was the second best team in the league at limiting opponent 3-point attempts and second in defending field goals at the rim. Toronto has the personnel to be even better in those areas this season. The Raptors will be able to execute switch heavy schemes when necessary and play conventional pick and roll defense at high level. They also have multiple guys with a knack for creating turnovers. Imagine a closing lineup of Lowry, Green, Anonoby, Leonard and Ibaka. Good luck scoring on that bunch. High energy reserves such as Delon Wright and Pascal Siakam will only contribute to this potentially ferocious defense.

Projecting how the Raptors offense will look is a trickier exercise. Toronto’s coaching staff, and Nick Nurse especially, received deserved recognition for reforming a notoriously stagnant offense last season. The Raptors immensely improved as a passing team, rising from dead last in assist percentage back in 2017 to sixth in 2018. The team also ramped up its 3-point attempt rate. Integrating a high usage player like Leonard into the offense will doubtlessly bring about an adjustment period for the Raptors; Kawhi is accustomed to being the alpha and omega for his team on offense. With another high volume ball handler on the roster in Lowry, the start of this already tenuous union could be difficult.

But aside from the real concerns that disrupting continuity can cause, replacing DeMar DeRozan with Kawhi should propel this offense to a new level. Of the team’s legit rotation players, only Jonas Valanciunas (he’s testing out the range though!) and Pascal Siakam are not real threats to launch from deep. Leonard will now be playing on a team with far better spacing than the Spurs of the past three seasons. That should render his dynamic isolation and driving game all the more deadly. With Lowry and Leonard sharing the brunt of primary ball-handling duties and taking on heavier loads in staggered lineups, this incarnation of the Raptors could have a ruthlessly efficient offense. And the pass-happy vibes that originated with Toronto’s bench last year should continue this season. The key reserve pieces are essentially the same. Once again VanVleet and the bench squads of the Raptors should roll over opposing units.

This team has skill, athleticism, shooting and depth. The Raptors should be competing for the Eastern Conference crown with the Celtics and Sixers this season. For the first time this decade, the Raptors don’t feel like fool’s gold contenders. If this team can properly mesh it has a chance to be truly dominant and could push for the 60 win mark. While that dominance may last only a fleeting moment if Kawhi opts to join the Lakers or Clippers next summer, Toronto’s risk will have been both understandable and worthwhile.