How the Bengals can overcome primetime woes against Chiefs
By Ian Wharton
3. Get the ball in Joe Mixon’s hands
Bengals offensive coordinator Bill Lazor has done a nice job this season keeping the team balanced for quarterback Andy Dalton. In wins, Dalton’s passing charts feature more screens than deep balls, and an equal distribution of throws across the field.
In losses, Lazor’s old tendencies show as he struggles with getting too-reliant on one phase of the playbook. It’s what caused his quick demise in Miami, too.
The Bengals can’t want Dalton to throw more than 40 times this week. This game cannot come down to Dalton trying to outshoot Mahomes. Not only is he considerably less talented, but the Bengals are in a rare situation where their playmakers aren’t the best ones amongst the two offenses in the game.
AJ Green and Tyler Boyd will find easy success against the Chiefs’ back-seven, but it’s Joe Mixon who must be the featured player. Mixon and the Bengals’ offensive line can maximize the units’ biggest strength against the NFL’s worst run defense.
Per Football Outsiders, the Chiefs’ run defense is easily last overall. Running backs are getting to the second-level almost instantly and creating the most yards at the second-level against this defense. 62 percent of their rushing plays have gone up the middle, which will take advantage of the Chiefs’ 30th-ranked interior run defense.
That is great for Mixon’s outlook.
The Bengals have the eighth-best defense overall and 10th-best run game despite not having Mixon at full-health for multiple games. He’s had no less than 18 touches in games he’s played, leading to 5.2 yard-per-touch average and 435 total yards.
Looking at the Bengals’ losses, they overextended Dalton in each game. 20 rush attempts with a running back against Atlanta despite leading 28-24 after one-half, and only being down six entering the fourth.
12 carries against Carolina despite never being out of the game until the Panthers began their final scoring drive with three minutes left.
Last week’s debacle against Pittsburgh in a game that would’ve all but crushed the Steelers’ playoffs hopes? 12 carries for Mixon that was 14-all at half. Lazor lost his focus on what makes this Bengals offense one of the better units in the league.
That must change this week. They will not have as much room for error against Mahomes’ air raid. A slow start is recoverable against the Chiefs’ defense but Dalton’s poor play in big games makes that situational wholly undesirable.
The Bengals can earn a ton of goodwill and continue their AFC North bid if they can upset the impressive Chiefs. The aforementioned three key areas will determine the outcome of the game.