Can Alabama make the College Football Playoff with a loss? Yep

Alabama is the No. 1 team in the College Football Playoff rankings, but can Nick Saban’s team afford a loss and still make it in?

Alabama has won every game this season by at least 22 points and are coming off a 29-0 win over then-No. 3 LSU in what was their toughest test to date. They checked in as the unanimous No. 1 team in the most recent AP Top 25 and they were once again the top team in Tuesday’s new College Football Playoff rankings.

Alabama hasn’t been tested this season and they may not be tested in their remaining games until they see Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. There hasn’t been much in the way of dramatics for the Crimson Tide this year, but what happens if they get upset, no matter how stunning it would be, would the playoff committee still let them in or would they miss the four-team field for the first time since its inception?

Obviously, this is a scenario that looks unlikely due to the play we have seen on the field so far. College football is all too familiar with end of the season chaos and this possible situation may be the most chaotic of all. The rest of the SEC teams on Alabama’s schedule are Mississippi State, Auburn and Georgia who they’ll play in the SEC Championship Game.

If history is any indicator, Alabama can make the College Football Playoff with one loss, even if they don’t win the SEC, just as they did last year en route to winning the national championship.

In this scenario, Georgia would move into the top four as the SEC champion. Assuming Clemson remains undefeated, Notre Dame remains undefeated and Michigan wins the Big Ten, that would leave Alabama competing with them for the final spot. In this scenario, I think Alabama would get in over Michigan, despite losing to Notre Dame in the season opener and running the table the rest of the way.

That would be a tough break for the Wolverines.

Could an undefeated Notre Dame team get bumped in favor of a one-loss Alabama?

Unlikely. An undefeated Notre Dame team will always get in so long as there aren’t four other undefeated teams from the Power 5 who have a conference championship game to play.

While those are all hypotheticals, it’s clear the committee loves Alabama a lot by virtue of LSU only dropping four spots to No. 7. The committee showed how much they respect Alabama otherwise LSU would have been ranked a few spots lower. Plus, we’ve already seen them rank a one-loss SEC team (LSU) above of all of the other one-loss teams and an undefeated Notre Dame last week.

It stands to reason Alabama’s lone loss to a one-loss SEC champion, Georgia wouldn’t see the Tide drop from No. 1 to No. 5.

Alabama should be considered a College Football Playoff lock, even if they end the season as a one-loss team. Unless they somehow lose twice in the next four weeks, the committee will have no reason to even consider removing Alabama out of the College Football Playoff.