NFL Week 12 picks against the spread

Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)

We aren’t going to see Alex Smith for a very long time. That injury in itself is the reason this line is ridiculous. I get that the Dallas Cowboys have been playing much better since they acquired Amari Cooper, but this is still a really flawed team. Two weeks ago, we thought Jerry Jones was going to fire Jason Garrett. Now, in a matchup to take the lead in the NFC East, we think the Cowboys are going to win by more than a touchdown? When they are playing on short rest?

The Redskins will go with Colt McCoy. This is the same Colt McCoy the Redskins considered going with full time when the Kirk Cousins drama was happening. Even with the Smith injury, they took the hottest team in the league in the Houston Texans to the limit. Why couldn’t they do that to a tired Cowboys team?

Not only are the Cowboys tired, but they are injured. They were missing three men on their front line, with Tyrone Smith and Zach Martin missing practice and tight end Geoff Swaim out several weeks after wrist surgery. The Redskins didn’t lose anything from their front seven. This game will be much closer than Vegas is saying.

Washington 21 Dallas 20

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (-13)

When was the last time the Atlanta Falcons were giving up 13 points? We get that the New Orleans Saints have been taking no prisoners, but again, this is a game where both teams are playing on short rest. Weird things happen when teams play on short rest.

Matt Ryan is not good in New Orleans, which does not bode well for this matchup. He is 3-7 in the Mercedes Benz Superdome. The Falcons played the Saints very close earlier in the year, but that was at home. That was also a different Saints team. This one is taking no mercy on its opponents.

What’s going for the Saints is they’ve covered eight straight spreads. That’s incredibly impressive. It’s almost silly to bet against them. However, this is a silly spread. This is a win-or-go-home game for the Falcons. If they lose this game, they have no shot at the playoffs and Dan Quinn is likely losing his job, along with his whole staff. Expect this to be a shootout with both quarterbacks putting up superstar numbers against tired defenses.

Atlanta 37 New Orleans 43