Fansided

Why Tiger Woods will beat Phil Mickelson in The Match

By David Salituro

US golfer Tiger Woods reacts on the third day of the 42nd Ryder Cup at Le Golf National Course at Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, south-west of Paris, on September 30, 2018. (Photo by Geoffroy VAN DER HASSELT / AFP) (Photo credit should read GEOFFROY VAN DER HASSELT/AFP/Getty Images)
US golfer Tiger Woods reacts on the third day of the 42nd Ryder Cup at Le Golf National Course at Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, south-west of Paris, on September 30, 2018. (Photo by Geoffroy VAN DER HASSELT / AFP) (Photo credit should read GEOFFROY VAN DER HASSELT/AFP/Getty Images) /
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From barely walking a year ago to now playing for $9 million, Tiger Woods’ 2018 season has already been magical. Now he has the chance to beat his main rival, Phil Mickelson, to cap off his comeback.

Tiger Woods has already had a memorable 2018. In the past 12 months he’s gone from barely being able to walk to preparing to face his main rival, Phil Mickelson, in a televised one-on-one duel for $9 million on Friday.

The Match: Tiger vs. Phil tees off at Shadow Creek in Las Vegas on Friday and pits Woods and Mickelson in a head-to-head battle that golf fans have long craved. More than $9 million is at stake, however. Whoever wins on Friday will have bragging rights over their rival, the ability to say that, for one day at least, they were the better player.

For the past 20 years its been Tiger who’s been able to claim that. He’s won 14 major championships and 80 PGA Tour titles to Mickelson’s five majors and 43 PGA wins. But one year ago it seemed like Woods would never win again.

Coming off a fourth back surgery, Woods’s future on the PGA Tour looked bleak. Miraculously, he not only returned to play this year but found his old form, culminating in a victory at the Tour Championship in September.

That makes Woods the favorite going into his match with Mickelson on Friday. These three reasons are why Woods will defeat his rival.

1) The Comeback

One year ago the fact that Tiger Woods would even play on the PGA Tour again, let alone in a televised $9 million match, seemed uncertain.

Woods was still recovering from back surgery, his fourth in recent years, 12 months ago. He’d fallen as low as 1,199th in the Official World Golf Rankings. He was even telling friends he thought he was done.

Not only did he return in 2018, however, he excelled. The determination he showed to get back is a reason why he’s the favorite to beat Mickelson on Friday.

Simply put, Woods didn’t endure four back surgeries and the long recovery just to lose to Mickelson. Woods’ season has been too magical, his comeback too admirable, to imagine him allowing his main rival for the last 20 years get the better of him at Shadow Creek.

“It’s been tough,” Woods admitted after winning the Tour Championship in September. “I’ve had a not so easy last couple of years, and I’ve worked my way back.”

If Tiger brings the same mentality he showed in overcoming the long odds and returning to form, Mickelson is in trouble.

2) He’s in better form

Both Woods and Mickelson ended five-year winless droughts on the PGA Tour in 2018, but Woods has been the far better player this year.

A runner-up finish at the Valspar Championship in March was the first indication he was back. He finished sixth at the Open Championship after holding the lead in the final round, then was second to Brooks Koepka at the PGA Championship. Finally, the comeback was complete with a dramatic victory at the season-ending Tour Championship in September.

Woods placed in the top-10 in five of his last eight events in 2018. Mickelson, meanwhile, after winning the WGC-Mexico Championship in March, doesn’t have a top-10 since May.

From outside the top 1,000 in the world rankings a year ago, Woods is now up to 13th. He was second to Justin Rose in the FedEx Cup standings. Woods was third on tour in strokes gained: approach to the green, and was 11h around the greens. Mickelson, known for his short game, was only 73rd in that category.

Neither Woods or Mickelson had a particularly memorable Ryder Cup, however, going a combined 0-6 in France.

3) Match play record

By most measures, Mickelson should excel at match play, the format that will be played at Shadow Creek. Match play doesn’t penalize taking risks and missed shots as much as stroke play does, which should play in Mickelson’s favor.

Sometimes, however, appearance doesn’t match reality. Mickelson has never advanced past the quarterfinals of the WGC-Match Play event. Woods, meanwhile, has won the tournament three times.

Any attempt by Mickelson to try to get in Tiger’s head on Friday and distract him with trash talk will only backfire. Just ask Stephen Ames.

In 2006, before Ames was to face Woods in the opening round of the WGC-Match Play, he answered a question about whether he thought he could beat Tiger by saying “anything can happen, especially where he’s hitting the ball.”

Woods, of course, went on to beat Ames 9 & 8. The memory of that match still stuck with Woods when it was brought up 11 years later. When asked whether Ames’ comments fueled him, Tiger simply replied, “You might say that. As I said, 9 & 8.”

If Mickelson thinks he can faze his rival, he’ll quickly find out he’s mistaken. Woods thrives off trash talk. Mickelson’s mouth, even more than his play, could make this a short match, and not in his favor.

The Match begins at 3 p.m. EST on Friday at Shadow Creek, and will be available on pay-per-view for $19.99.

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