UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega preview and predictions

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EDMONTON, AB – SEPTEMBER 09: Valentina Shevchenko of Kyrgyzstan raises her hands after facing Amanda Nunes of Brazil in their women’s bantamweight bout during the UFC 215 event inside the Rogers Place on September 9, 2017 in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images) /

Valentina Shevchenko vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk

UFC 232 has Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino vs. Amanda Nunes, the WMMA super fight that’s bound to get a lot of eyes; however, 231 may feature the most skilled women’s fight ever. Valentina Shevchenko had fought undersized at 135 for a long time and still deserved the decision to win the bantamweight championship at UFC 215; now moving down to the burgeoning women’s flyweight, Shevchenko is immediately elite and looks to become champion for the first time in the UFC. Meanwhile, Joanna Jedrzejczyk has already been champion; the greatest women’s strawweight of all time, she moves up to flyweight to face an old foe.

One of the predominant narratives of this fight has been Shevchenko’s previous wins over Jedrzejczyk; in 2006, 2007, and 2008, Shevchenko thwarted Jedrzejczyk in Muay Thai with three wins over her. This is far less significant than it seems, though; not only was this over a decade ago as both were in the earliest stages of their careers, the metagame in kickboxing and Muay Thai is so different from the metagame in MMA that results will almost certainly vary.

However, Shevchenko holds a number of advantages in this fight; a low-volume counter striker with excellent control of distance, Shevchenko’s mastery in open space will likely make it very difficult for Jedrzrjczyk to find the shots that have been the root of her strawweight success. One feature of many of Jedrzejczyk’s elite opponents has been that she hasn’t had to chase them; fighters like Jessica Andrade were happy to run onto Jedrzejczyk’s jab over and over, and Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Tecia Torres were similarly persistent to pressure WMMA’s most masterful outfighter. Jedrzejczyk isn’t incapable of pressuring, as she showed against a severely overmatched Carla Esparza, but it isn’t her forte; when Rose Namajunas stuck to the outside and drew out Jedrzejczyk rather than chasing her, Namajunas won the striking as Jedrzejczyk had real trouble closing distance responsibly. With a good pivot and a check hook as well as an underrated kicking game, Shevchenko is very difficult to close down on the front foot and is good at drawing her opponents out, and her striking is as good (if not better) than Jedrzejczyk’s in the pocket. Neither throws with much power, but Jedrzejczyk is a lot more prone to expose herself to counters with long combinations than Shevchenko is with her lower-volume and emphasis on keeping distance.

One interesting quirk of this fight involves the consistent issues with MMA judging; Shevchenko’s kicking game and counterstriking should be able to hold Jedrzejczyk at bay, but Jedrzejczyk’s furious combination striking on the inside could be enough to convince judges that she’s winning even if those blows don’t land clean. Shevchenko has run into the hazard of low-volume before against a far less refined striker than Jedrzejczyk in Amanda Nunes; despite consistently landing better, the judges turned to no-impact takedowns to determine the winner because it didn’t seem like she had done enough. At +260, Jedrzejczyk may be worth a bet just because Jedrzejczyk’s style is far more ingratiating to judges, but if Shevchenko can fight the fight she usually does, it’ll be hard for Jedrzejczyk to deny her.

Prediction: Shevchenko via unanimous decision.

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