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NFL Wild Card Odds: Picks against the spread

By Nick Villano

CARSON, CA - DECEMBER 22: Lamar Jackson #8 of the Baltimore Ravens runs past the defense of Adrian Phillips #31 of the Los Angeles Chargers during the first half of a game at StubHub Center on December 22, 2018 in Carson, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
CARSON, CA - DECEMBER 22: Lamar Jackson #8 of the Baltimore Ravens runs past the defense of Adrian Phillips #31 of the Los Angeles Chargers during the first half of a game at StubHub Center on December 22, 2018 in Carson, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) /
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(Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)
(Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images) /

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (-1.5)

The first game of the weekend is usually the worst possible game. It either has a hapless Cincinnati Bengals team, or a team led by T.J. Yates or Ryan Lindley. That isn’t the case here. The Colts and Texans are about to have a barn burner for the chance to move on in the AFC. Andrew Luck led his team out of the depths. They started the season 1-5 to make a massive run all the way to the playoffs. They won their win-and-they’re-in game against the Tennessee Titans. It was against Blaine Gabbert, but they took care of the opponent that was in front of them.

The Texans finally lives up to the expectations. They have themselves a quarterback in Deshaun Watson, and he helped them win the division. What really helped them was the play of their defense. JJ Watt came off two years of injuries hit 16 sacks, good for second in the league. Houston is fourth in the league in points against per game.

This matchup will come down to keeping Luck clean. The Colts offensive line has done a masterful job of keeping Luck from getting hit all season long. In their first two matchups, they split wins. In the Colts loss, Luck was sacked four times. In their win, he was sacked just twice. Both these teams started the season as bad as possible, but pulled through in the later months. The Colts won already at NRG Stadium. Pick them to win a back and forth game that might be the best of the weekend.

Indianapolis 33 Houston 30

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys (-2)

It’s very surprising that America’s Team the Dallas Cowboys were regulated to the Saturday game of the first weekend of the NFL Playoffs, but it makes sense. This is the lesser of the two NFC matchups, but only slightly. This one is still going to be a very good game. The Cowboys decided to give Dak Prescott most of the snaps last week despite their spot in the playoffs being locked up. They sat Ezekiel Elliott, but not their quarterback. It could have been so he can build momentum going into this game, but it would have been a massive mistake if he got hurt.

The Seattle Seahawks are expecting to get DJ Fluker back to help bolster that offensive line. That helps after a week where Russell Wilson was sacked six times, the third time that’s happened this season. The Cowboys bring a very good defense, but round out in the middle of the pack in sacking the QB. If they can make Wilson move, then it could be a much different game.

The last time these two teams met, it was an easy win for the Seahawks. That was a completely different Cowboys team. In Week 3, the Cowboys were on the way to cleaning house, including firing Jason Garrett. Now, the Cowboys are riding high. The big change in this matchup is it’s in Jerry World in Dallas. The Cowboys are 7-1 at home including wins against the Saints and Eagles. The Seahawks are 4-4 on the road. There is a home-field advantage, and that will swing this matchup in the Cowboys favor. If they can get up early, and force Pete Carroll to abandon the running game, it could be a huge win for Dallas.

Seattle 21 Dallas 28