NFL Divisional Round picks against the spread

Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots (-4)

This is the most intriguing matchup of the weekend, which is probably why it’s the one with the shortest line. The Chargers come into this matchup winning eight games away from Los Angeles. The New England Patriots haven’t lost a game at home all season. This is the Chargers playing where they’re most comfortable against the team that’s never lost in Gillette Stadium. Something has to give here.

It’s no secret that this isn’t the Patriots offense we’re used to. Tom Brady seems more skittish than ever, and after losing Josh Gordon there’s no player opposing teams fear. Rob Gronkowski looks like a shell of his former self, and Julian Edelman can’t seem to keep his hands on the ball. Yet this team still ranked fourth in the league in points. They were also seventh in points against. Those are some pretty good numbers for a team many said was on the decline.

The Chargers numbers are just slightly worse than the Patriots, ranking sixth in points and eighth in points against. This is the matchup of the weekend. Can Philip Rivers win the big one, and take down the Patriots at home? Will Melvin Gordon be able to carry this offense? It will be close, but we’ve seen the Patriots come out the victor too often in this situation, and betting against them might be a mistake.

Los Angeles (C) 21 New England 27

Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints (-8)

Eight points? This line is quite high for this matchup, but Vegas must be taking into account the 48-7 drubbing the Saints put on the Eagles during the regular season. I don’t think Nick Foles is 41 points better than Carson Wentz, but I don’t believe one regular season blowout really tells the whole story. When things unravel when nothing is one the line, teams tend to quit. Don’t expect that kind of effort in the postseason.

The Saints defense has been carrying this team over the last month of the season. The Eagles offense didn’t do great last week against another great defense in the Bears. Can they do something better this week?

The Eagles have a magic about them, but this Saints team is just worlds better. Are they eight points better? Honestly, every metric says yes. They have a much better offense, an elite defense and a dozen more weapons on both sides of the ball than the Eagles do. If the Saints won’t have to worry about the Eagles running game, then they can focus on stopping Foles by taking out Alshon Jeffery. It’s unfortunate, but this won’t be a very entertaining matchup for the defending champs.

Philadelphia 13 New Orleans 31