Out of nowhere, are we getting a Liga title race?

Real Madrid’s improved form, coupled with a dip for Barcelona, has led to an unexpected La Liga title race.

A lot can change in a short time. Coming into the new year, it looked certain Barcelona would retain the Liga title. They’d been the best team through December, Real Madrid were struggling as they looked to get familiar with Santiago Solari’s tactics and man management and Atletico Madrid struggled with inconsistency.

Now it’s mid-February, and there are just six points separating Barcelona and second-place Real Madrid. The Champions League and Europa League knockout stages are underway, as well as the Copa Del Rey semifinals. With that in mind, let’s assess the title race in Spain with three months left to spare.

How did we get to this point?

The title race looked over at the turn of the year, with Barcelona in cruise control at the top of the table. However, two straight draws leave the Catalan side looking over their shoulders. The most recent of those, a scoreless affair against Athletic Bilbao, highlighted some problems. Philippe Coutinho is struggling with poor form and can’t nail down a starting spot, Luis Suarez is visibly tired, having started so many games without much rest in between, and the midfield has been hampered by an injury to Arthur.

Perhaps the biggest problem, though, is the defense, which has looked shaky and is relying on the heroics of Marc-Andre Ter Stegen. They also went three games without a clean sheet before the scoreless draw at San Mames.

Real Madrid, in contrast, have won five straight league games, including a convincing 3-1 win away at Atletico Madrid. Teenage star Vinicius Jr. has been on a tear, while both Karim Benzema and Gareth Bale are starting to be clinical in front of goal. After a slow start under Santiago Solari, they seem to be approaching top form. There some causes for concern — Thibaut Courtois hasn’t impressed, Isco has fallen out with Solari — but there’s no question Real have the momentum right now.

We should also make mention of Atletico, who dropped into third following that loss to Real, their second straight defeat. Diego Simeone’s side are now seven points behind Barca and struggling for goals. They have just 33 in the league all season, seven fewer than Real and 17 fewer than Barca. Antoine Griezmann leads the team with 11 league goals; their next highest scorer only has two. It seems hard to imagine them overhauling the two sides above them, but at only seven points back they can’t be ruled out yet.

Who’s the favorite for the title at this stage?

Here’s where things get interesting.

Barcelona lead the league, but have a difficult few weeks ahead of them. They host Valladolid this weekend, but then face Lyon in the Champions League, Sevilla in the league, Real in the Copa del Rey and then Real again in the league. Ernesto Valverde will have to carefully manage the fitness of his star players while trying to keep his side firing on all cylinders as they keep their lead at the top of La Liga intact. Their Copa del Rey run already seems to have cost them points this season. The Champions League is a more coveted prize, but the fixture pileup could cost them at home.

Should Barca leave the door open, that’ll give Real Madrid much needed impetus to take full advantage. They play bottom half sides before and after their two Clasico meetings, and also hold the away goals advantage over Ajax as they go home for the second leg in their Champions League tie. Solari has his team in top form at the moment.

Atletico look to be the odd team out, seeing as they have to deal with Juventus in the Champions League and are struggling for form. The Rojiblancos could be out of both Europe and the league title race by next month. With a league as ruthless as La Liga, keep your eyes peeled for what these three Spanish giants do in the coming weeks.